Amarillo, Texas Real Estate Market 2026: Score 19, Affordable Prices, a Decade of Flat Returns

Amarillo, Texas scores 19 out of 100 on the PropertyIQ index as of February 2026.

The number that makes this market worth examining is not the score. It is the combination underneath the score: Amarillo home prices are technically 9.6% below what local incomes would support, unemployment is 3.1%, and the city is affordable by nearly every conventional measure. And the score is still 19.

PropertyIQ scores Amarillo a 19 out of 100 as of February 28, 2026. Scores are updated monthly using Zillow, Census, and Realtor.com data.

The Affordability Paradox in Amarillo Texas

The overvaluation reading for Amarillo is -9.6% as of February 2026. That negative number means home prices are actually 9.6% below what the local income base would support in a fully priced market. The calculated affordable home price is $250,459 based on the metro median household income of $66,571. The Zillow home value is $211,677.

The income required to buy at the median listing price of $292,250 is $77,679 per year. The income-to-buy ratio is 1.17. A household earning $10,000 above the metro median can comfortably reach the median listing price. That combination is not common in 2026.

The unemployment rate is 3.1% as of November 2025. The median listing price is $292,250. The price per square foot is $157. By the numbers, Amarillo presents as accessible and economically functional.

So why does it score 19?

What Drives the Amarillo Score of 19

The five-year home value change for Amarillo is -7.92% as of February 2026. In nominal terms, Amarillo homes are worth less today than they were five years ago. During a period when most U.S. markets appreciated 30% to 50%, Amarillo was flat to negative.

The Zillow one-year price forecast is 2.3% as of December 2025. The year-over-year appreciation from Realtor.com listing data is 0.52%. Near-flat price growth, in a market that has not recovered its pre-pandemic appreciation trajectory, means that buyers entering today are absorbing minimal equity growth despite low entry prices.

The demand score is 61.9 out of 100 as of February 2026. The pending ratio is 0.40. For every 100 active listings, 40 are under contract. That is below what healthy-market absorption looks like. The market clears, but slowly.

Price reductions affect 12.72% of active listings as of February 2026. One in eight sellers has already reduced. The sale-to-list ratio is 98.24%, meaning buyers are receiving modest discounts from asking prices on a consistent basis.

The score has not exceeded 22 in any of the twelve months through February 2026. This is not a temporarily suppressed market waiting to recover. The PropertyIQ dataset for Amarillo shows a structurally weak signal that has held its low position consistently across seasonal variations.

Amarillo Housing Market: Inventory Data

Active inventory is 831 homes as of February 2026, down 19.29% year over year. New listings are 306, down 8.93% year over year.

On paper, tightening inventory is a bullish supply signal. Fewer homes for sale typically supports pricing. The Amarillo data shows inventory declining without a corresponding price response. This pattern, where supply tightens without accelerating demand, suggests the constraint is on the buyer side rather than the supply side. The pool of buyers willing to transact in Amarillo is not expanding fast enough to convert falling inventory into price appreciation.

Days on market is 52 as of February 2026. Home sales volume year over year is up 11.6%. The market is not frozen. Homes are trading regularly.

Rent Data and Cash Flow in Amarillo

The Zillow rent index for Amarillo is $1,230 per month as of December 2025. At a Zillow home value of $211,677, the gross rent multiplier is approximately 14.4.

A GRM of 14.4 is in the range that cash flow investors consider viable, particularly compared to coastal markets where GRMs above 25 make positive cash flow mathematically difficult. The income required to afford Amarillo rents without cost burden is approximately $49,195 per year, well below the metro median income of $66,571.

The challenge for cash flow investors in Amarillo is appreciation. Rents generating reasonable current yields in a market where five-year values have declined 7.9% in nominal terms means total returns are compressed by the negative equity component. Investors who bought five years ago in Amarillo collected rent but did not capture the appreciation that made the same period extremely profitable in most comparable markets.

How Amarillo Compares to Other Texas Markets

Texas has significant market variation that is not visible in statewide narratives. Dallas-Fort Worth scores 31. El Paso scores 46. Houston scores 32. Amarillo at 19 sits at the lower end of the Texas market range.

The Texas markets that score highest in the dataset are generally those with higher employment density, stronger in-migration, and proximity to major economic centers. Amarillo's position in the Texas Panhandle, while it supports a stable agricultural and logistics economy, does not generate the population growth and employment expansion that drive real estate demand higher over time.

The metro population is 270,207 as of 2023 Census data. The median age is 36.3 years, slightly below the national median, which is a positive structural indicator. The homeownership rate is 63.93%.

What the Score of 19 Means for Buyers

Amarillo is not a distressed market. It is not experiencing price cuts at the rate seen in Bend, Oregon or the supply surge visible in markets like Fort Lauderdale. It is a stable, affordable market that has not participated in the appreciation cycle that characterized U.S. real estate over the past five years.

For buyers seeking low entry cost in a market with functional employment, Amarillo delivers on affordability metrics. For buyers who expect their primary residence to build equity at rates seen in Allentown or Grand Rapids, the five-year and twelve-month appreciation data present a different expectation.

The PropertyIQ score measures current market conditions. A score of 19 means current conditions score poorly across the supply, demand, and pricing components that feed the model. It is not a statement about the people who live there or the city's quality of life. It is a data-driven read on the real estate market dynamics as of February 2026.

PropertyIQ score as of February 28, 2026. Listing and inventory data as of February 1, 2026. Zillow home value data as of January 31, 2026. Sale-to-list data as of November 30, 2025. Forecast data as of December 2025. Census data as of 2023. Economic data as of November 2025. All data for informational purposes only.