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Validated, Not Vibes

The PropertyIQ Score

One number that predicts market performance. Validated, not vibes.

900+ metros20+ years validatedPositive every year
Explore scored markets

The Proof

Decile Performance

Higher-scored metros consistently outperform their state benchmark over the 3-year horizon, with monotonic separation between deciles.

3-Year Returns

3-year cumulative excess return vs. state benchmark

ScoreMean ExcessP(Beat State)N
10-4.36%32.4%17,392
20-2.50%37.4%18,446
30-1.92%40.9%18,364
40-1.21%43.9%18,423
50state avg-0.72%46.8%18,376
60-0.34%49.0%18,609
70-0.11%50.6%18,580
80-0.19%50.4%18,604
90+0.47%54.9%18,641
100+1.94%58.5%15,973

Methodology

How It Works

1

4 Market Signals

12- and 3-month Zillow price momentum, plus Realtor.com days on market and the share of listings with price cuts — the signals that predict future returns.

2

Z-Score Normalization

Each signal is standardized within its geography level every month, removing scale differences so they combine cleanly.

3

Percentile Score

The combined signal is mapped to 1-99 where 50 equals the state average. Higher is better.

Why It Matters

$21,741

The cost of choosing wrong

Score 80+

Top-quintile metros averaged +0.38% excess return per year over their state benchmark. On a typical $252K home, that compounds to meaningful wealth over 3 years.

Score 20

Bottom-quintile metros averaged -1.29% excess return per year versus their state. At the extremes, choosing a score-10 over a score-100 market costs roughly $21,741 in lost equity over 3 years.

How to Use the PropertyIQ Score

High Score (80+)

Markets scoring 80 or above have historically outperformed their state benchmark by a meaningful margin. These metros show strong demand signals: rising home values, fast sales, and few price cuts. Historically, top-scored markets have beaten their state about 56% of the time over 3-year horizons.

Low Score (Below 40)

Markets below 40 have historically underperformed their state benchmark. Weak demand signals — flat or falling values, slow sales, and frequent price cuts — suggest caution. Bottom-scored markets have beaten their state only about 37% of the time. Use low scores as a guardrail when evaluating markets.

Confidence (A-F)

Every score includes a confidence grade reflecting data quality and coverage. A/B confidence means robust data across all four input signals. C/F confidence means data gaps exist — treat the score directionally rather than precisely. Always supplement low-confidence scores with local market knowledge.

How We Build the Score

The PropertyIQ Score uses four signals — 12- and 3-month Zillow price momentum, Realtor.com median days on market, and the share of listings with price cuts — chosen because they are the most predictive signals of future home price appreciation. We tested dozens of candidate signals; these four survived rigorous out-of-sample validation; more metrics added noise, not signal.

Each signal is z-score normalized within its geography level for its time period, removing scale differences. The combined signal is then mapped to a 1-99 percentile where 50 equals the state average. This approach is transparent, reproducible, and validated across 900+ metros over more than two decades of data, positive in every validated year — higher-scored metros outperformed lower-scored metros on average.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a real estate market score?

A real estate market score is a single number that measures how strong a housing market is relative to others. The PropertyIQ Score ranks markets from 1 to 99 based on four demand signals — how fast home values have grown over the last year, how fast they've grown over the last 3 months, how quickly homes are selling (days on market), and whether sellers are cutting their asking prices. A score of 50 equals the state average; higher scores indicate markets outperforming their peers. It helps investors and homebuyers quickly compare thousands of markets without analyzing dozens of data points manually.

How can I predict housing market performance?

The most reliable way to predict housing market performance is to track leading demand signals rather than lagging price data. The PropertyIQ Score combines four proven indicators — price growth over the past year, price growth over the last 3 months, how fast homes sell, and whether sellers are cutting prices. Across more than two decades of monthly backtesting, higher-scored markets outperformed lower-scored markets in every year tested. You can check any market's score for free on PropertyIQ.

How often is the PropertyIQ Score updated?

The score is recalculated monthly as new housing data arrives. The four input signals — price growth over the last year, price growth over the last 3 months, days on market, and the share of listings with price cuts — update monthly. Each refresh incorporates the latest available data.

What data sources power the score?

The PropertyIQ Score is built on four housing signals: price growth over the last year and the last 3 months (from Zillow's home value index), plus how fast homes sell (days on market) and the share of sellers cutting prices (both from Realtor.com listing data). We tested 40+ features across Zillow, Realtor.com, Census, FRED, and BLS — these four are the most predictive of future home price appreciation in out-of-sample testing.

How accurate is the PropertyIQ Score?

Across more than two decades of monthly backtesting, higher-scored markets outperformed lower-scored markets in essentially every year, at metro, county, and ZIP level. Comparing equally-priced homes in the same state, a top-band market has historically added roughly $18,400 more equity than a bottom-band market over 3 years at metro level, and around $24,000 at ZIP level — where investors actually pick neighborhoods. These are historical averages across thousands of markets, not guarantees about any single property.

Why only 4 signals?

We tested 40+ features across multiple data sources. These four housing signals are the most predictive of future returns in rigorous out-of-sample testing. They carry equal weight and no fitted parameters, so there is almost nothing to overfit. More metrics didn't improve performance — they added noise. Simpler models generalize better, and these four capture the price-momentum and demand dynamics that drive home price appreciation.

Can I trust scores for smaller markets?

Each score comes with a confidence rating (A through F) that reflects how many of the four input signals are available for that market and how fresh the data is. Markets with A or B confidence have all four inputs covered; markets with C or F confidence are missing some inputs (for example, scored on price momentum alone), and their scores should be used directionally rather than as precise predictions. We always recommend supplementing score data with local market knowledge.

How many markets does PropertyIQ cover?

PropertyIQ scores housing markets at three levels — roughly 865 metro areas, 3,073 counties, and over 26,000 ZIP codes in the validation window — covering the vast majority of the U.S. housing market. The validation dataset spans more than two decades of monthly history.

Ready to find the best markets?

Use the PropertyIQ Score to discover high-performing markets backed by data, not hunches.