Validated, Not Vibes
The PropertyIQ Score
One number that predicts market performance. Validated, not vibes.
The Proof
Decile Performance
Higher-scored metros consistently outperform their state benchmark. The pattern holds across both 1-year and 3-year horizons, with monotonic separation between deciles.
1-Year Returns
1-year excess return vs. state benchmark
| Score | Mean Excess | P(Beat State) | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | -2.11% | 34.0% | 13,048 |
| 20 | -1.26% | 38.8% | 13,826 |
| 30 | -0.84% | 41.7% | 13,816 |
| 40 | -0.47% | 46.0% | 13,823 |
| 50state avg | -0.15% | 49.0% | 13,676 |
| 60 | +0.07% | 51.0% | 11,037 |
| 70 | +0.23% | 53.9% | 11,030 |
| 80 | +0.53% | 56.0% | 11,027 |
| 90 | +1.03% | 59.9% | 11,033 |
| 100 | +1.64% | 66.1% | 9,461 |
3-Year Returns
3-year cumulative excess return vs. state benchmark
| Score | Mean Excess | P(Beat State) | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | -5.66% | 32.3% | 10,948 |
| 20 | -3.34% | 39.2% | 11,601 |
| 30 | -2.04% | 42.4% | 11,594 |
| 40 | -1.20% | 45.3% | 11,604 |
| 50state avg | -0.28% | 48.4% | 11,479 |
| 60 | +0.31% | 51.2% | 9,267 |
| 70 | +1.17% | 55.4% | 9,251 |
| 80 | +1.87% | 56.4% | 9,249 |
| 90 | +3.05% | 59.3% | 9,257 |
| 100 | +4.28% | 63.7% | 7,943 |
Methodology
How It Works
3 Housing Metrics
% Sold Above List, Median Days on Market, Months of Supply — the three signals that actually predict future returns.
Z-Score Normalization
Each metric is standardized against the national distribution, removing scale differences so they combine cleanly.
Percentile Score
The composite z-score is mapped to 1-99 where 50 equals the state average. Higher is better.
Why It Matters
$24,384
The cost of choosing wrong
Top-quintile metros averaged +0.53% excess return per year over their state benchmark. On a typical $300K home, that compounds to meaningful wealth over 3 years.
Bottom-quintile metros averaged -1.26% excess return per year versus their state. At the extremes, choosing a score-10 over a score-100 market costs roughly $24,384 in lost equity over 3 years.
How to Use the PropertyIQ Score
High Score (80+)
Markets scoring 80 or above have historically outperformed their state benchmark by a meaningful margin. These metros show strong demand signals: homes selling above list price, fast days on market, and tight supply. Historically, top-quintile markets beat the state 56% of the time over 1-year horizons.
Low Score (Below 40)
Markets below 40 have historically underperformed their state benchmark. Weak demand signals — homes selling below list, long days on market, excess supply — suggest caution. Bottom-quintile markets beat the state only 39% of the time. Use low scores as a guardrail when evaluating markets.
Confidence (A-F)
Every score includes a confidence grade reflecting data quality and coverage. A/B confidence means robust data across all three input metrics. C/F confidence means data gaps exist — treat the score directionally rather than precisely. Always supplement low-confidence scores with local market knowledge.
How We Build the Score
The PropertyIQ Score uses three housing metrics — % Sold Above List, Median Days on Market, and Months of Supply — chosen because they are the most predictive signals of future home price appreciation. We tested 40+ features from Zillow, Census, FRED, BLS, and housing. These three survived rigorous out-of-sample validation; more metrics added noise, not signal.
Each metric is z-score normalized against the national distribution for its time period, removing scale differences. The composite z-score is then mapped to a 1-99 percentile where 50 equals the state average. This approach is transparent, reproducible, and validated across 746 metros over 13 years of data with 100% year hit rate — every single year, higher-scored metros outperformed lower-scored metros on average.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is a real estate market score?
A real estate market score is a single number that measures how strong a housing market is relative to others. The PropertyIQ Score ranks markets from 1 to 99 based on demand signals — % Sold Above List, Median Days on Market, and Months of Supply. A score of 50 equals the state average; higher scores indicate markets outperforming their peers. It helps investors and homebuyers quickly compare thousands of markets without analyzing dozens of data points manually.
How can I predict housing market performance?
The most reliable way to predict housing market performance is to track leading demand indicators rather than lagging price data. The PropertyIQ Score combines three proven predictors — how often homes sell above asking, how fast they sell, and how much inventory is available. In 13 years of backtesting across 746 metros, these three signals predicted which markets would outperform every single year. You can check any market's score for free on PropertyIQ.
How often is the PropertyIQ Score updated?
The score is recalculated monthly as new housing data arrives. The three input metrics — % Sold Above List, Median Days on Market, and Months of Supply — update monthly. Each refresh incorporates the latest available data.
What data sources power the score?
The PropertyIQ Score is built on three housing metrics: % Sold Above List, Median Days on Market, and Months of Supply. We tested 40+ features from Zillow, Census, FRED, BLS, and housing — these three are the most predictive of future home price appreciation in out-of-sample testing.
How accurate is the PropertyIQ Score?
The score has a 100% year hit rate across 13 years of backtesting: every single year, higher-scored metros outperformed lower-scored metros on average. Top-quintile markets (Score 80+) beat the state 56% of the time, while bottom-quintile markets (Score 20) beat the state only 39% of the time. At the extremes, choosing a score-100 market over a score-10 market translates to roughly $24,384 in extra equity on a typical home over 3 years.
Why only 3 metrics?
We tested 40+ features across multiple data sources. These 3 housing metrics are the most predictive of future returns in rigorous out-of-sample testing. More metrics didn't improve performance — they added noise. Simpler models generalize better, and these three capture the core demand-supply dynamics that drive home price appreciation.
Can I trust scores for smaller markets?
Each score comes with a confidence rating (A through F) that indicates data quality and coverage. Markets with A or B confidence have robust data across all three input metrics. Markets with C or F confidence have data gaps, and their scores should be used directionally rather than as precise predictions. We always recommend supplementing score data with local market knowledge.
How many markets does PropertyIQ cover?
PropertyIQ scores 746 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs), covering the vast majority of the U.S. housing market. Coverage is focused at the metro level where data density supports reliable scoring. The validation dataset spans 13 years of historical data.
Ready to find the best markets?
Use the PropertyIQ Score to discover high-performing markets backed by data, not hunches.