Austin vs Houston Real Estate in 2026: What the PropertyIQ Score Shows

Austin vs Houston real estate in 2026 comes down to a 14-point gap in the PropertyIQ Score and a fundamentally different set of risks. Austin scores 18 out of 100. Houston scores 32 out of 100. Both scores are low by national standards. But the reasons behind each score, and what those reasons mean for an investor or buyer making a decision today, are very different.

PropertyIQ scores both markets as of February 28, 2026.

Austin: 18 out of 100 (Grade: F) Houston: 32 out of 100 (Grade: F)

Neither market is flashing a buy signal right now. But Houston is in a materially better position on valuation, rent-to-price ratio, and near-term price stability. If you are deciding between these two Texas metros, the data has a clear answer.

Two Different Markets, One Big Decision

Austin and Houston are both Texas markets with strong long-term fundamentals: population growth, tech and energy job bases, no state income tax, and continued in-migration from higher-cost states. The case for both has always been rooted in those structural tailwinds.

What has changed is that Austin ran prices up dramatically during 2021 and 2022, and the correction since then has been significant. Houston never reached the same valuation extreme, which is why its score holds higher even as both markets share similar inventory pressures.

The investors and buyers comparing these two cities are often asking the same question: is Austin's brand premium worth the higher price and the current correction risk, or does Houston's lower entry point and better current fundamentals make it the smarter Texas play in 2026?

The PropertyIQ Score gives a direct answer. Here is what is driving each number.

Austin PropertyIQ Score: What Drives It

Austin scores 18 out of 100 as of February 28, 2026. This is the lowest it has scored since PropertyIQ began tracking the market, and it reflects a confluence of factors that together produce a weak current picture.

Listing price and home value. Median listing price in Austin is $455,000 as of February 1, 2026. The Zillow home value estimate for the metro is $426,643 as of January 31, 2026. Both figures are down sharply from the 2022 peak, but they remain well above what local income fundamentals can support.

Overvaluation. Austin is 22.8% overvalued relative to local income and rent fundamentals as of February 1, 2026. The income required to buy at current prices is $120,937. The median household income in Austin is $97,638 (2023 Census). That gap is the single biggest weight on the score.

Year-over-year price decline. Home values in Austin fell 8.82% year over year as of February 1, 2026. That is a meaningful correction, but it has not yet closed the valuation gap. Prices came down, but affordability has not recovered because rates remained elevated throughout the decline.

Inventory and supply pressure. There are 9,072 homes listed for sale in Austin as of February 1, 2026, up 14.77% year over year. Sellers are adding supply into a market where demand is weak. The demand score for Austin is 6.35 out of 100. Days on market sit at 76. One in five listings (20.01%) has had a price cut.

Zillow near-term forecast. Zillow projects Austin home values to decline an additional 2.0% near-term as of December 31, 2025. That is not a catastrophic forecast, but it is a continuation of the correction rather than a turning point.

Trend. Austin's score has been slowly recovering from a low of 11 in September 2025. It was 15 in January 2026 and reached 18 in February 2026. The direction is positive, but the score remains deep in F territory.

For more detail on the Austin market, see the Austin real estate market 2026 full profile.

Houston PropertyIQ Score: What Drives It

Houston scores 32 out of 100 as of February 28, 2026. That score reflects a market under real pressure from inventory and declining values, but one that entered this cycle with far less valuation excess than Austin.

Listing price and home value. Median listing price in Houston is $349,999 as of February 1, 2026. The Zillow home value estimate is $304,941 as of January 31, 2026. Houston is one of the most affordable large metros in the country on an absolute basis, and that affordability relative to income is the primary reason its score is 14 points above Austin's.

Overvaluation. Houston is 7.4% overvalued as of February 1, 2026. The income required to buy at current prices is $93,028. The median household income in Houston is $80,458 (2023 Census). The gap is real, but it is far narrower than Austin's. A household earning close to the Houston median can get within range of the market. That is not true in Austin.

Year-over-year price decline. Houston home values fell 2.23% year over year as of February 1, 2026. That is a meaningful decline, but it is roughly one-quarter the magnitude of Austin's 8.82% drop. Houston entered the correction from a lower starting point and has corrected less sharply.

Inventory and supply pressure. There are 30,462 homes listed for sale in Houston as of February 1, 2026, up 14.28% year over year. Houston's raw inventory count is much larger than Austin's, but Houston is also a much larger metro. With a population of 7.27 million (2023 Census) compared to Austin's 2.36 million, the per-capita inventory picture is similar. Houston's supply score is 71.9 out of 100, reflecting that supply is abundant. Days on market: 54, noticeably faster than Austin's 76.

Zillow near-term forecast. Zillow projects Houston home values to grow 0.9% near-term as of December 31, 2025. That is a modest positive, and it stands in direct contrast to Austin's -2.0% projection.

5-year appreciation. Houston's 5-year home value change is +5.26% as of February 1, 2026. Austin's is +1.34%. On a 5-year lookback, Houston has delivered meaningfully better returns.

Trend. Houston's score trended down from a high of 41 in April 2025 to a low of 22 in December 2025. It has since recovered to 32 in February 2026. The recent momentum is positive, though the level remains in F territory.

For the full Houston breakdown, see the Houston real estate market 2026 profile.

Head-to-Head: Rent-to-Price, Appreciation, and Risk

Here is the direct side-by-side across the metrics that matter most for investors and buyers (all data as of February 28, 2026, unless otherwise noted).

| Metric | Austin | Houston | |---|---|---| | PropertyIQ Score | 18 | 32 | | Listing Price | $455,000 | $349,999 | | Zillow Home Value | $426,643 | $304,941 | | Home Value YoY | -8.82% | -2.23% | | Overvalued % | 22.8% | 7.4% | | Inventory (active) | 9,072 | 30,462 | | Inventory YoY | +14.77% | +14.28% | | Days on Market | 76 | 54 | | Price Cuts | 20.01% | 18.37% | | Demand Score | 6.35 | 0 | | Rent Index (monthly) | $1,571 | $1,625 | | Rent-to-Price Ratio | 0.37% | 0.53% | | Price Forecast (Zillow) | -2.0% | +0.9% | | 5-Year Appreciation | +1.34% | +5.26% | | Median Income | $97,638 | $80,458 | | Income to Buy | $120,937 | $93,028 | | Unemployment | 3.2% | 4.2% | | Population | 2.36M | 7.27M |

The rent-to-price ratio deserves special attention for investors. Using Zillow home values and rent index data as of late 2025 and early 2026:

• Austin: monthly rent of $1,571 on a $427K home = 0.37% monthly rent-to-price ratio
• Houston: monthly rent of $1,625 on a $305K home = 0.53% monthly rent-to-price ratio

Houston produces more rental income per dollar invested. A $300K Houston property generates roughly $1,625 per month in expected rent. A comparable dollar amount in Austin buys a fraction of a unit. That spread is meaningful for anyone underwriting a cash flow analysis.

Austin has one advantage in the table: unemployment. At 3.2% as of December 2025, Austin's job market is tighter than Houston's 4.2%. Austin's tech sector and major employers continue to add high-income jobs. That employment strength supports long-term demand and is the primary reason Austin's score has been recovering rather than falling further.

Which Market Fits Which Investor Profile

The two markets serve different investor profiles.

Houston is better suited for:

Cash flow investors. The rent-to-price ratio is more favorable. At $305K median home value and $1,625 monthly rent, Houston comes closer to achieving workable investor math than Austin does at current price levels.

Value-oriented buyers. Houston is 7.4% overvalued. That is a stretched market, but it is within range of income fundamentals. A buyer with $80K-$93K household income is not locked out of the market the way they would be in Austin.

Investors who want to minimize near-term price risk. Zillow forecasts Houston at +0.9% near-term versus Austin at -2.0%. That is a modest but real difference in near-term downside exposure.

Long-horizon appreciation buyers. Houston's 5-year home value change of +5.26% is nearly four times Austin's 1.34% over the same period. The appreciation story has favored Houston over the recent historical window.

Austin may be worth monitoring for:

Investors with a 5-year-plus horizon who believe the tech employment story will drive eventual recovery. Austin's unemployment rate of 3.2% and high median income of $97,638 (2023 Census) are structural positives. If prices correct further to close the 22.8% overvaluation gap, Austin's score will improve and opportunity will be clearer.

Buyers who have strong employment in the Austin market and are buying a primary residence rather than an investment. The income story in Austin is real. The question is whether you are buying at a price that reflects that income story fairly.

Investors willing to wait for a score recovery signal before committing. Austin's score bottomed at 11 in September 2025 and has climbed to 18. If that trend continues, the entry window may look better in 12 to 18 months than it does today.

Neither market represents the kind of clear buy signal that a score above 60 or 70 would indicate. The right read on both markets right now is: watch, track, and do not rush.

How to Run Your Own Comparison on PropertyIQ

The PropertyIQ Score is updated monthly using Zillow, Realtor.com, Census, and economic data across 400+ U.S. markets. Every metro, county, and ZIP code gets a score from 0 to 100. The methodology accounts for valuation, supply-demand balance, rent-to-price ratios, income support, and near-term market direction.

For the Texas investor deciding between Austin and Houston, the score is a starting point, not a conclusion. The data tells you where the market stands. Your analysis tells you whether that market fits your goals.

You can pull live scores for Austin (metro 12420) and Houston (metro 26420), plus any other markets you are comparing, directly in PropertyIQ. The comparison tool lets you run these side-by-side with the same data underlying this post.

PropertyIQ scores as of February 28, 2026. Listing data as of February 1, 2026. Rent and forecast data as of December 2025. Economic and census data as noted. All data provided for informational purposes only and should not be the sole basis for investment decisions.