Dayton, Ohio Real Estate Market 2026: Score Dips to 69 But Fundamentals Hold

The Dayton, Ohio real estate market scores 69 out of 100 on the PropertyIQ Score as of February 28, 2026, placing it in the upper-middle tier of markets nationally. That score is down two points over the prior three months, a mild softening. But a closer look at the Dayton Ohio real estate market reveals a city with affordable prices, rising home values, and demand that continues to outpace supply.

For buyers and investors watching mid-size Midwest cities, Dayton deserves close attention in 2026.

What the PropertyIQ Score Means for Dayton

The PropertyIQ Score measures market health on a 0-to-100 scale using data from Zillow, Realtor.com, Census, and economic indicators, updated monthly. A score of 50 represents the Ohio state average. Dayton at 69 is above average for the state and above average nationally.

Three months ago, Dayton scored 76. The pullback to 69 reflects rising inventory and softening demand metrics. But the score has moved between 67 and 80 over the past 12 months, pointing to a market with solid underlying demand that fluctuates seasonally rather than one in structural decline. The data confidence is rated A at 100%, meaning the score is fully reliable.

Dayton Ohio Home Prices and Market Activity

As of February 2026, the median listing price in Dayton is $244,300 per Realtor.com data. Home values are up 6.25% year-over-year. Month-over-month, prices rose 1.83% in February, suggesting continued upward movement despite the modest score softening.

Key market activity metrics as of February 2026:

• Days on market: 62 days
• For-sale inventory: 1,188 active listings
• Inventory growth YoY: up 19.2%
• New listings YoY: down 2.7%
• Pending ratio: 0.87
• Price cut rate: 17.7%
• Price per square foot: $154
• Demand score: 82 out of 100

The pending ratio of 0.87 is the most telling figure. For every 100 active listings in Dayton, 87 are under contract. Buyers are still competing for properties even as inventory expands. The 19.2% inventory growth without a corresponding price drop confirms that new supply is being absorbed efficiently. More options for buyers, without a price crash for sellers.

The demand score of 82 out of 100 remains strong. Combined with a supply score of 58, Dayton shows a market where demand clearly leads, even as supply catches up toward equilibrium.

Dayton Real Estate Investment Data

For investors evaluating the Dayton Ohio real estate market, the return data paints a mixed but clear picture:

• Gross yield: 4.87%
• Cap rate: 2.92%
• Gross rent multiplier: 20.53
• Rent index: approximately $984/month (Census 2023 baseline)
• 5-year home value appreciation: 39.44%
• Income needed to buy at the median: $64,934 (February 2026)

The cap rate of 2.92% sits below the 5-7% range most cash flow investors target. Dayton is not the strongest cash flow market in Ohio. But the 39.44% five-year appreciation is the real headline. An investor who entered five years ago holds substantial equity at entry prices that were a fraction of what coastal markets demanded at the same time.

The income-to-buy threshold of $64,934 matters for understanding rental market depth. With median household income at $69,752, most Dayton households are close to qualifying to purchase, but many will continue renting. That dynamic supports rental occupancy rates and income stability.

Who Lives in Dayton

The Dayton metro population was 813,608 as of 2023 Census data. Median household income was $69,752. Median age is 39.1, consistent with a workforce-age population. Homeownership sits at 64.8%, slightly below the national average.

Unemployment was 4.1% as of November 2025, in line with historical Dayton levels. The local economy draws from defense, aerospace, healthcare, and logistics. Wright-Patterson Air Force Base is one of Ohio's largest employers, anchoring both the housing and rental markets with a stable, income-consistent workforce. The University of Dayton and multiple regional hospital systems add economic diversification that reduces cyclical risk.

Why the Score Is Cooling

The drop from 76 to 69 over three months comes from inventory expansion. A 19.2% year-over-year inventory increase means more seller competition, which softens pricing power even as absolute home values continue to rise.

The demand score stands at 82 out of 100 as of February 2026. The supply score climbed to 58 from lower prior levels, narrowing the gap that had pushed the score toward 76. This is normalization, not deterioration. Markets rarely sustain scores above 90 for extended periods.

The key forward indicator is the pending ratio. At 0.87, buyers are still absorbing available inventory at a healthy pace. That absorption rate will determine whether the score stabilizes around 69 or recovers toward 76 over the next quarter.

Dayton Versus Other Ohio Markets

PropertyIQ covers every major Ohio metro monthly. Akron scored 88 in February 2026, significantly above Dayton. Cleveland and Columbus have also outscored Dayton in recent months.

That said, Dayton's $244K median listing price is meaningfully lower than Columbus and Cleveland, giving it a clear affordability advantage that shows up in the pending ratio and demand score. Buyers priced out of the state's pricier metros often find Dayton a compelling alternative. The lower entry price also reduces capital requirements for investors building Ohio exposure.

Market Outlook for Dayton in 2026

The combination of 6.25% year-over-year appreciation, strong demand at 82 out of 100, and below-equilibrium supply suggests the market will continue to appreciate modestly through 2026.

The 5-year appreciation of 39.44% is the historical benchmark. Dayton buyers who purchase in 2026 are entering a market with a demonstrated long-term growth record, even if the near-term score suggests a temporary cooling phase.

The income-to-buy threshold of $64,934 sits just below the metro median income of $69,752. That affordability alignment means organic demand from local households is real and sustainable, not dependent on outside speculation or remote-work migration trends that can reverse quickly.

Dayton for First-Time Buyers

One of the most important and underreported aspects of the Dayton Ohio real estate market is what it means for first-time buyers. Dayton is one of very few markets in the country where the income needed to buy the median home is within reach of the median local household.

The required income of $64,934 is low enough that dual-income households earning above average wages can enter the market without extreme financial stress. The price-per-square-foot of $154 also means buyers get more space for their dollar than in virtually any major coastal market.

For first-time buyers tired of being priced out of Boston, New York, or the Bay Area, and who are open to Midwest living, Dayton represents genuine accessibility with solid appreciation potential.

What Buyers and Investors Should Know

For homebuyers: Dayton is one of the most accessible Midwest metros. A 6.25% YoY appreciation rate means waiting costs real money. The pending ratio of 0.87 means competition is real on well-priced properties. In the $200K-$270K range, move quickly.

For investors: The 4.87% gross yield and $244K entry point make Dayton worth modeling. It is not a top cash flow market, but the 39.44% five-year appreciation and deep renter pool support long-term portfolio growth. The income alignment between local wages and the purchase threshold continues to drive demand and protect occupancy rates.

The Bottom Line

The Dayton, Ohio real estate market scores 69 out of 100 on the PropertyIQ Score as of February 28, 2026. The score has softened modestly over three months due to inventory expansion. Home values are up 6.25% year-over-year. The pending ratio sits at 0.87. And the five-year appreciation of 39.44% demonstrates consistent performance over time.

Dayton is not a boom market. It is a steady, affordable Midwestern city that continues to deliver value for buyers and investors who focus on data rather than headlines.

Explore the Dayton market score, compare it to other Ohio cities, and ask Quinn any question about this market at propertyiq.app. Free to use, updated monthly.