Florida Real Estate 2026: Tampa, Orlando, and Jacksonville, Scored and Compared

Florida was one of the hottest real estate destinations in the country during 2020–2022. Remote work migration, retirees, investors, and a favorable tax environment drove values up across the state.

As of February 2026, the three largest Florida metros in the PropertyIQ dataset tell a more complicated story.

The Scores (as of February 28, 2026):

• Tampa: 47 out of 100
• Orlando: 44 out of 100
• Jacksonville: 31 out of 100

All three sit in the bottom half of the national index. Here is what is driving each score.

Tampa (47)

Tampa has 17,921 homes for sale as of February 2026 — the most of the three Florida metros. Homes are averaging 80 days on market, and 24.85% of listings have taken at least one price cut. Home values are essentially flat, up just 0.23% year over year as of February 2026. The median listing price is $399,900. Tampa is 41.1% overvalued relative to local fundamentals. Zillow forecasts 1.5% near-term appreciation as of December 2025.

Orlando (44)

Orlando's inventory is 12,764 homes as of February 2026 — down 0.23% year over year, a slight improvement. But demand is still weak: homes are sitting 82 days on average, and 20.66% of listings have price cuts. Home values are down 0.94% year over year as of February 2026. The median listing price is $415,000, and the market is 43.8% overvalued. Zillow forecasts 1.9% near-term appreciation — the highest of the three Florida metros.

Jacksonville (31)

Jacksonville has the lowest score and some of the most interesting data in the group. Home values are down 1.57% year over year as of February 2026 — the largest decline among the three. But inventory is down 11.95% year over year, a meaningful reduction. New listings have also fallen 10.34%. At the current trajectory, Jacksonville's supply picture may improve before Tampa's or Orlando's. The median listing price is $382,000 — the most affordable of the three. Overvaluation is 27.5%, the lowest of the group. Zillow forecasts 1.5% near-term appreciation.

The Florida Pattern

All three markets share the same underlying problem: homes were built and priced for a demand wave that has since moderated. Insurance costs in Florida have risen sharply over the past two years, which has added to the affordability pressure on buyers. New construction has continued to add supply. The result is extended days on market and widespread price reductions.

The market that shows the most early stabilization signals is Jacksonville: inventory is shrinking, its overvaluation is the lowest of the three, and its price declines may be attracting buyers back. But a score of 31 still reflects significant stress.

PropertyIQ scores as of February 28, 2026. Listing and inventory data as of February 1, 2026. Forecast data as of December 2025. All data for informational purposes only.