Missoula MT Real Estate Market 2026: PropertyIQ Score 10, What the Data Shows

Missoula, MT scores 10 out of 100 on the PropertyIQ index as of February 28, 2026.

That is an F grade. Among the 400+ markets PropertyIQ tracks, a score of 10 places Missoula in the bottom tier nationally. The primary driver is extreme overvaluation: the median listing price is $675,000 in a metro where the median household income is $70,888 and the income required to comfortably purchase the median home is $179,261. That gap is one of the widest in our dataset for any small metro in the United States.

This post covers what the PropertyIQ data shows for Missoula as of February 2026, why the score is where it is, what the counterarguments are, and what investors and buyers should understand before making a decision here.

What the PropertyIQ Score of 10 Means

The PropertyIQ Score is a 0-100 composite index updated monthly. It measures current market conditions across home price trends, inventory health, demand signals, affordability relative to local income, and economic fundamentals. A score of 50 represents the national average. A score above 80 indicates strong conditions. A score of 10 means the composite of current data puts this market in the bottom 5-10% nationally.

Missoula's score of 10 is driven by a single dominant factor: affordability. When the gap between listing prices and what local incomes can support reaches 122.6% overvaluation, no combination of strong employment or low days on market can pull the composite score up significantly. The math does not work at current prices for most buyers in the local income range.

Key metrics as of February 28, 2026:

• PropertyIQ Score: 10 out of 100 (F)
• Median listing price: $675,000 (Realtor.com, March 2026)
• Zillow home value: $559,078 (January 31, 2026)
• Home value change YoY: -3.5% (as of March 1, 2026)
• Home value change MoM: +3.45% (as of March 1, 2026)
• Active inventory: 365 listings
• Inventory YoY change: +22.32%
• New listings YoY: +20.97%
• Pending listings: 142
• Pending ratio: 0.39
• Days on market: 58
• Price cuts: 14.4% of listings
• Price per square foot: $352
• Home sales YoY: +54.35% (as of March 1, 2026)
• Zillow 12-month price forecast: +4.1% (as of December 31, 2025)
• Overvaluation: 122.6% above fundamental fair value
• Income needed to purchase: $179,261
• Affordable home price based on local income: $266,926
• Median household income: $70,888 (Census, 2023)
• Unemployment rate: 3.2% (November 2025)
• Population: 124,435 (Census, 2023)
• 5-year home value appreciation: 38.48%

The Overvaluation Problem

A 122.6% overvaluation figure means the current listing prices in Missoula are approximately 2.2 times what local income fundamentals support. The income-supported home price for a household earning $70,888 is approximately $266,926. Median listing prices are $675,000. That is a $408,000 gap.

This type of overvaluation typically develops when a market attracts buyers from higher-income regions who bring outside capital. In Missoula's case, the driving force has been migration from California and the Pacific Northwest by remote workers and retirees who cashed out of more expensive markets. These buyers can pay $675,000 because they are not using a Missoula income to buy a Missoula home. They are using equity from a Seattle or Bay Area sale.

The consequence is that local incomes are functionally disconnected from the housing market. A Missoula teacher, nurse, or small business owner earning the local median cannot purchase the median home. The income-to-buy requirement of $179,261 is more than 2.5 times the local median household income.

This dynamic is not unique to Missoula. Bozeman, MT has experienced a similar pattern. What makes it relevant to investors is that markets sustained by outside capital, rather than local income growth, carry structural vulnerability if migration patterns shift.

Supply Is Expanding, Not Contracting

Unlike high-scoring markets where supply is tight and shrinking, Missoula's inventory is expanding. Active listings are up 22.32% year over year as of March 2026. New listings are up 20.97%.

The pending ratio of 0.39 means there are roughly 2.6 active listings for every 1 pending contract. That is a buyer's market reading. In markets like Hartford, CT, the pending ratio exceeds 1.0, meaning more contracts than available listings. Missoula is running in the opposite direction.

Days on market is 58. For context, high-score markets typically see days on market in the 20-35 range with rapid absorption. At 58 days, listings are sitting longer. Combined with the 14.4% price cut rate, sellers are having to negotiate and reduce to find buyers.

These supply dynamics are consistent with a market that overran its demand base during the 2020-2022 migration surge and is now working through that excess.

What Is Working in Missoula's Favor

The score of 10 does not mean Missoula is collapsing. Several metrics point to stability.

Unemployment is low. At 3.2% as of November 2025, Missoula's labor market is healthy. The University of Montana employs roughly 4,000 people and provides the institutional stability that insulates the market from single-industry risk. Healthcare, education, and government sectors provide additional employment diversification.

Home sales volume surged. Home sales are up 54.35% year over year as of March 2026. This is a significant activity increase. Whether it represents pent-up demand catching up, price reductions finally attracting buyers, or a one-month spike in a low-volume market requires further tracking. In a metro of 124,000, transaction counts are small and single months can distort the YoY calculation.

The Zillow forecast is positive. The 12-month home price forecast as of December 31, 2025 is +4.1%. That is above the national baseline. If accurate, Missoula prices recover some of the -3.5% YoY decline recorded as of March 2026.

Five-year appreciation is 38.48%. Buyers who entered in 2020 or 2021 before the migration surge have seen strong appreciation. The question for 2026 buyers is whether a second appreciation wave is available or whether the market is plateauing at a price level that exceeds what the local economy can absorb long-term.

Month-over-month is positive. The +3.45% MoM reading suggests prices ticked up in the most recent reporting period. One month is not a trend, but the direction aligns with the Zillow forward forecast.

The Investor Math

For investors evaluating Missoula as a rental market, the rent-to-price relationship is challenging.

The Zillow rent index is $1,486 per month as of December 31, 2025. At a purchase price of $559,078 (Zillow home value), the gross rent multiplier is approximately 376 months, or a gross yield of about 3.2% before expenses. For an investment property financed with a 20% down payment at current mortgage rates, the monthly debt service alone on $447,262 at approximately 7% is roughly $2,977. Against $1,486 in expected rent, the cash-on-cash math produces significant negative cash flow.

For cash flow investors, Missoula at current prices does not pencil. This is consistent with the 10/100 score.

For appreciation-oriented investors who believe the migration thesis continues, the calculus depends on whether out-of-state buyer demand returns. That is a bet on macroeconomic trends that PropertyIQ does not forecast.

How Missoula Compares to Other Montana Markets

The PropertyIQ score for Missoula (10) sits at the bottom of what we track in Montana. Billings, MT represents a different part of the Montana market: it has a stronger economic base tied to energy, healthcare, and retail serving a broader eastern Montana population.

Montana as a state attracted substantial migration from 2020 to 2022 when remote work made scenic amenity markets viable for high-income earners. The unwinding of that migration wave, or its moderation, is the key variable for Western Montana markets over the next 24 months.

Who This Market Is For

Missoula's PropertyIQ Score of 10 reflects current conditions accurately. It is not a market PropertyIQ recommends to cash flow investors at current price levels. The rent-to-price ratio, the overvaluation gap, and the expanding supply all work against the traditional investment thesis.

There are buyers for whom Missoula makes sense despite these numbers. Buyers relocating from higher-cost markets who are indifferent to local income benchmarks. Buyers prioritizing quality of life factors not captured by market scores: access to wilderness, outdoor recreation, and a university-anchored cultural environment. Buyers with long time horizons who accept that short-term cash flow will be negative.

The PropertyIQ Score is not a lifestyle score. It measures current market fundamentals. Missoula at 10 is a high-price, supply-expanding, overvalued market with a positive forecast and low unemployment. Those are the facts as of February 2026.