New York City Real Estate Market 2026: Home Sales Down 27%, But Sellers Are Not Cutting

New York City is the largest housing market in the United States by population: 19.7 million people in the metro as of 2023. It is also one of the most expensive, the most constrained by structural supply limits, and the most financially inaccessible for the median household.

PropertyIQ scores New York City a 70 out of 100 as of February 28, 2026. A 70 sits above the national midpoint. The data underneath that score, though, shows a market in an unusual holding pattern: shrinking transaction volume, modest price declines, and sellers who are largely refusing to adjust asking prices.

Home Sales Volume Has Collapsed

The most striking number in the New York City data as of February 2026 is home sales volume, down 27.38% year over year. That is not a modest softening. It reflects a market where fewer transactions are completing, likely because the gap between what sellers are asking and what buyers can pay at current mortgage rates has widened to the point of gridlock at the margin.

New listings are down 11.61% year over year as of February 2026. Sellers are also pulling back from listing. That combination, fewer new listings and fewer completed sales, reflects a market with low transaction velocity at both ends.

Sellers Are Not Cutting

Only 6.22% of New York City listings had price reductions as of February 2026. That is lower than most comparable high-cost metros. The sale-to-list ratio is at 100% as of November 2025, meaning the homes that do transact are selling at full asking price.

This creates a split picture. The market is transacting at roughly asking price for deals that close. But the volume of deals closing has dropped sharply. Sellers who are holding price are doing so selectively: homes priced correctly in competitive submarkets are moving. Sellers in less competitive positions are sitting.

The Affordability Gap

The income required to purchase at the median New York City listing price of $749,450 as of February 2026 is approximately $199,201 per year. The median household income in the metro is $97,334 (2023 Census). That is a gap of roughly $101,867 annually between what the market demands and what the median household earns.

The affordable home price for New York's income base is approximately $366,198 based on current interest rates, meaning median-priced listings are priced 104.7% above what the median income can support on a standard mortgage.

The overvaluation figure from PropertyIQ's model: New York City is 106.4% above fundamental value as of February 2026.

What Is Still Working

New York City's pending-to-active ratio is 0.4783 as of February 2026. Nearly half of active listings are under contract. For a market of 27,681 active listings, that reflects a buyer pool that is still engaging. Inventory is up only 1.96% year over year: a marginal increase, not a flood.

Average days on market is 68 as of February 2026, which is elevated but not unusual for a high-cost market where buyers take longer to transact. The Zillow home price forecast for New York City is plus 1.9% as of December 2025, the most optimistic forecast in this batch.

Rent in the New York City metro averages approximately $3,246 per month as of December 2025. For investors holding existing units, the rent level supports the asset class even when prices are elevated. The rent-to-price ratio on new acquisitions at median prices remains challenging, but the rental demand base in New York City is structurally durable.

Home Values Are Declining, But Slowly

Home values in New York City are down 2.27% year over year as of February 2026. The Zillow home value index puts the metro median at approximately $703,346 as of January 2026. Month over month, values were up 0.06%, suggesting the pace of decline has slowed.

The 5-year appreciation figure is plus 15.3% as of February 2026. The long arc of New York City real estate continues to show appreciation above inflation even during soft periods.

What the Score of 70 Reflects

A 70 in New York City reflects a market where supply constraints are keeping the score elevated despite weak demand signals. New listings are falling. The supply score is 46.5 out of 100, sitting at midpoint. The demand score is 34.4 out of 100, below average. The tension between those two inputs, constrained supply and subdued demand, produces a score above the national midpoint.

The score is not saying the market is healthy in an accessible sense. It is saying the market is constrained enough that a significant correction is not signaled by the current data.

PropertyIQ score as of February 28, 2026. Listing and inventory data as of February 1, 2026. Rent and forecast data as of December 2025. Census and economic data 2023. All data for informational purposes only.