Phoenix vs Las Vegas Real Estate in 2026: What the PropertyIQ Score Shows

Phoenix vs Las Vegas real estate in 2026 comes down to a 1-point gap in the PropertyIQ Score and a fundamentally different set of stories about how each market got here. Phoenix scores 45 out of 100. Las Vegas scores 44 out of 100. One point separates them on the surface. But the path each market took to reach that number tells you more about their relative risk and opportunity than the scores themselves.

PropertyIQ scores both markets as of February 28, 2026.

Phoenix: 45 out of 100 (Grade: F) Las Vegas: 44 out of 100 (Grade: F)

Neither market is signaling a clear buy right now. But Phoenix is recovering from a severe bottom while Las Vegas is recovering from a steep fall off a recent peak. That directional difference matters for investors sizing up where each market goes from here.

Two Sun Belt Stories, One Shared Score

Phoenix and Las Vegas are both classic Sun Belt growth markets. Both sit in the desert Southwest. Both attracted massive in-migration during the pandemic. Both ran prices up sharply in 2021 and 2022. And both are now working through the aftermath of that run-up with elevated inventory, declining year-over-year values, and affordability gaps that the PropertyIQ model scores as the primary drag on each market.

The difference is the cycle each market is in right now.

Phoenix hit a score low of 21 in July 2025. That is deep in distressed territory. From that trough, Phoenix has climbed 24 points in 7 months to reach 45 today. The recovery has been consistent and sustained. The market is rebalancing.

Las Vegas peaked at 59 in February 2025, a score that reflected genuine underlying strength. By November 2025, the score had fallen 26 points to 33. The recovery since then has been modest: 11 points over three months to reach 44 in February 2026. Las Vegas entered this comparison from a position of strength and has lost more of it.

The question for investors choosing between these two markets: do you want the market that has already bottomed and is recovering, or the market that was stronger six months ago but is still working through a bigger correction from a higher peak?

The PropertyIQ data gives a direct answer. Here is what is driving each score.

Phoenix PropertyIQ Score: What Drives It

Phoenix scores 45 out of 100 as of February 28, 2026. That score reflects a market that corrected sharply, bottomed, and has now recovered to the lower edge of average territory. The momentum is the strongest part of the picture. The valuation gap is the biggest remaining drag.

Listing price and home value. Median listing price in Phoenix is $494,998 as of February 1, 2026. The Zillow home value estimate for the metro is $445,713 as of January 31, 2026. Home values fell 3.88% year over year as of February 1, 2026, but rose 1.23% month over month. The positive monthly trend is a signal that prices are finding a floor.

Overvaluation. Phoenix is 49.2% overvalued relative to local income and rent fundamentals as of February 1, 2026. The income required to buy at current prices is $131,569. The median household income in Phoenix is $84,703 (2023 Census). That gap is the largest single weight on the score and the reason the market cannot push higher despite its strong recovery momentum.

Inventory and supply pressure. There are 19,352 homes listed for sale in Phoenix as of February 1, 2026, up 11.3% year over year. New listings are down slightly year over year (-0.64%), a sign that seller additions to supply are slowing. With 7,513 pending listings and 8,356 new listings, the absorption picture has improved from the depths of 2025. Days on market sit at 55. Price cuts remain elevated at 28.22%, down from the worst of the correction but still well above healthy market levels.

Demand signals. Phoenix's demand score is 16.7 out of 100 as of February 1, 2026. That is low, but it is more than six times Las Vegas's demand score of 2.68. Home sales are up 9.84% year over year as of February 1, 2026. Buyers are coming back.

Near-term forecast and employment. Zillow projects Phoenix home values to grow 1.0% near-term as of December 31, 2025. Unemployment in the Phoenix metro is 3.5% as of December 2025, one of the lower readings among major Sun Belt metros. The 5-year home value appreciation for Phoenix is +19.8% as of February 1, 2026.

Score trajectory. Phoenix scored 44 in February 2025, fell to 21 in July 2025, and has since climbed back to 45. It has fully recovered the ground lost over the correction period. The trend is the strongest endorsement the data has to offer.

For more detail on Phoenix, see the Phoenix real estate market 2026 full profile.

Las Vegas PropertyIQ Score: What Drives It

Las Vegas scores 44 out of 100 as of February 28, 2026. That score sits 15 points below where it was just 12 months ago, when Las Vegas was one of the stronger-scoring large metros in the country. The fall reflects rising inventory, a cooling demand picture, and an affordability gap that has widened as prices held higher while income fundamentals lagged.

Listing price and home value. Median listing price in Las Vegas is $464,950 as of February 1, 2026. The Zillow home value estimate is $427,889 as of January 31, 2026. Home values fell 1.07% year over year as of February 1, 2026, and were flat month over month (-0.01%). Las Vegas has not seen the sharp YoY correction Phoenix did, but the monthly momentum has stalled.

Overvaluation. Las Vegas is 64.7% overvalued relative to local income and rent fundamentals as of February 1, 2026. The income required to buy at current prices is $123,582. The median household income in Las Vegas is $73,845 (2023 Census). The gap between what the market costs and what local incomes can support is wider in Las Vegas than in Phoenix, even though the Las Vegas median listing price is $30,000 lower. That is because Las Vegas incomes are meaningfully lower than Phoenix incomes.

Inventory and supply pressure. There are 9,161 homes listed for sale in Las Vegas as of February 1, 2026, up 23.01% year over year. That is a larger percentage increase than Phoenix's 11.3% inventory growth. New listings in Las Vegas are up 2.28% year over year. Supply is rising faster in Las Vegas at the same time demand is weaker.

Demand signals. Las Vegas's demand score is 2.68 out of 100 as of February 1, 2026. That is the most concerning number in this comparison. A demand score under 5 signals that buyer activity is well below what the market needs to absorb available inventory. Price cuts run at 18.19%, lower than Phoenix but still elevated. Days on market sit at 53, two days faster than Phoenix.

Near-term forecast and employment. Zillow projects Las Vegas home values to grow 1.6% near-term as of December 31, 2025. That is a slightly better near-term forecast than Phoenix's 1.0%. Unemployment in Las Vegas is 5.2% as of December 2025, well above Phoenix's 3.5% and a reflection of the market's exposure to hospitality and tourism employment. The 5-year home value appreciation for Las Vegas is +35.75% as of February 1, 2026, significantly stronger than Phoenix's 19.8% over the same window.

Score trajectory. Las Vegas scored 59 in February 2025, peaked at 57 in March 2025, fell to 33 by November 2025, and has since recovered to 44. The recovery is underway but the magnitude of the prior decline leaves less margin for error.

For the full Las Vegas breakdown, see the Las Vegas real estate market 2026 profile.

Head-to-Head: Rent-to-Price, Appreciation, and Risk

Here is the direct side-by-side across the metrics that matter most for investors and buyers (all data as of February 28, 2026, unless otherwise noted).

| Metric | Phoenix | Las Vegas | |---|---|---| | PropertyIQ Score | 45 | 44 | | Listing Price | $494,998 | $464,950 | | Zillow Home Value | $445,713 | $427,889 | | Home Value YoY | -3.88% | -1.07% | | Home Value MoM | +1.23% | -0.01% | | Overvalued % | 49.2% | 64.7% | | Inventory (active) | 19,352 | 9,161 | | Inventory YoY | +11.3% | +23.0% | | Days on Market | 55 | 53 | | Price Cuts | 28.22% | 18.19% | | Demand Score | 16.7 | 2.68 | | Rent Index (monthly) | $1,731 | $1,725 | | Rent-to-Price Ratio | 0.39% | 0.40% | | Price Forecast (Zillow) | +1.0% | +1.6% | | 5-Year Appreciation | +19.8% | +35.75% | | Median Income | $84,703 | $73,845 | | Income to Buy | $131,569 | $123,582 | | Unemployment | 3.5% | 5.2% | | Population | 4.94M | 2.29M | | Score 12 Months Ago | 44 | 59 | | Score Low (2025) | 21 (July 2025) | 33 (Nov 2025) |

The rent-to-price ratio is nearly identical for both markets. Phoenix produces $1,731 monthly rent on a $445,713 Zillow home value, a 0.39% monthly ratio. Las Vegas produces $1,725 on a $427,889 home value, a 0.40% ratio. That near-perfect parity means the rent income story does not decisively favor either market for cash flow investors. An investor underwriting cash flow math will find roughly equivalent gross yield starting points.

The overvaluation gap is the more important number for investors thinking about downside risk. Las Vegas is 64.7% overvalued versus Phoenix at 49.2%. Both are stretched markets. But Las Vegas requires a household income of $123,582 to buy at current prices, in a metro where the median household income is $73,845. That is a 67% income gap. Phoenix requires $131,569 against a median income of $84,703, a 55% income gap. On an absolute basis Phoenix homes cost more. On a relative-to-local-income basis, Las Vegas is harder to afford.

The unemployment spread is the most meaningful structural difference between the two markets. Phoenix at 3.5% versus Las Vegas at 5.2% reflects fundamentally different employment bases. Phoenix has a more diversified economy with technology, finance, and healthcare employers. Las Vegas is heavily weighted toward hospitality and gaming, sectors that contract faster in economic slowdowns. For investors thinking about tenant quality, vacancy risk, and rent stability, the Phoenix employment picture is structurally stronger.

Which Market Fits Which Investor Profile

The two markets serve overlapping but distinct investor profiles.

Phoenix may be better suited for:

Momentum investors. Phoenix has gained 24 points since its July 2025 low. The recovery is broad-based: demand scores are improving, monthly home values are ticking positive, and home sales are up 9.84% year over year. The score is pointing up and the data behind it supports continued improvement. For investors who want to buy into a recovery already confirmed by the model, Phoenix has that track record.

Employment-quality focused landlords. Phoenix's 3.5% unemployment rate is the strongest in this comparison by a wide margin. Tenants are more likely to be employed in stable sectors. Vacancy risk is lower when the local labor market is tight. For long-term rental investors who weight tenant quality in their underwriting, Phoenix has a meaningful structural advantage.

Buyers who want to minimize overvaluation risk. Phoenix is overvalued at 49.2%, which is still stretched. But it is 15 percentage points less overvalued than Las Vegas. If the market corrects further toward income fundamentals, Phoenix has a shorter distance to travel. The affordable home price in Phoenix is $318,677, suggesting current prices need to fall roughly $127,000 to reach income-supported levels. In Las Vegas the affordable home price is $277,826, suggesting prices need to fall roughly $150,000.

Las Vegas may be better suited for:

Investors with a longer track record horizon. Las Vegas's 5-year home value appreciation of +35.75% is nearly double Phoenix's +19.8% over the same window. If that structural appreciation advantage persists, Las Vegas has delivered and may continue to deliver stronger capital gains over longer holding periods, despite higher near-term volatility.

Buyers who believe in the Las Vegas demand story and accept the overvaluation risk. Las Vegas continues to attract in-migration from California and other high-cost states. The pipeline of new residents looking for affordable Sun Belt living relative to where they came from supports long-term demand. For buyers who believe that story has more runway, the current correction may represent a better long-term entry point than it appears on a 12-month view.

Investors watching for a demand recovery signal. Las Vegas's demand score of 2.68 is near the floor. A score that low can only improve. When it does, and when inventory absorption picks up, the score will react. A patient investor who monitors the monthly data and waits for the demand signal to turn could find a favorable entry window.

The right read on both markets right now is cautious optimism. Phoenix has a stronger current recovery and better employment fundamentals. Las Vegas has a stronger 5-year appreciation history and a slightly better near-term price forecast. Neither market is compelling at a score under 50, but both are moving in the right direction.

How to Run Your Own Comparison on PropertyIQ

The PropertyIQ Score is updated monthly using Zillow, Realtor.com, Census, and economic data across 400+ U.S. markets. Every metro, county, and ZIP code gets a score from 0 to 100. The methodology accounts for valuation, supply-demand balance, rent-to-price ratios, income support, and near-term market direction.

For investors choosing between Phoenix and Las Vegas, the score comparison is a starting point. The data tells you where each market stands. Your personal analysis of hold period, cash flow requirements, and risk tolerance tells you which market fits your goals.

You can pull live scores for Phoenix (metro 38060) and Las Vegas (metro 29820), plus any other markets you are tracking, directly in PropertyIQ. The comparison tool lets you run them side-by-side with the same data underlying this post, updated each month as new Zillow, Realtor.com, and economic data comes in.

PropertyIQ scores as of February 28, 2026. Listing and inventory data as of February 1, 2026. Rent, forecast, and sales data as of December 2025. Economic data as of December 2025. Census data as of 2023. All data provided for informational purposes only and should not be the sole basis for investment decisions.