Provo UT Real Estate Market 2026: PropertyIQ Score 67 — Recovering But Priced High

The Provo UT real estate market 2026 scores 67 out of 100 on the PropertyIQ index as of February 28, 2026. That score reflects a market in recovery. Six months ago, in September 2025, Provo scored 56. The trend is upward and meaningful, but the current score still sits below 70, which means conditions remain below the threshold PropertyIQ uses to identify meaningfully above-average markets.

The story here is more nuanced than a single number conveys. Provo is one of the fastest-growing metros in the United States, anchored by Brigham Young University and a technology corridor that has attracted national attention. It also carries the highest overvaluation estimate in this batch at 57.7%. That tension, strong fundamentals meeting overextended pricing, is what the 67 score captures.

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What a Score of 67 Means for Provo

The PropertyIQ Score is a 0 to 100 composite index. A score of 50 represents the national average. Scores above 70 indicate conditions meaningfully better than baseline. Provo's 67 as of February 28, 2026 puts it above average but short of the tier that PropertyIQ identifies as high-conviction.

The trend is the stronger signal. Provo sat at 47 in December 2025, meaning the score has risen 20 points in two months entering 2026. At 75 in March 2025, the market was genuinely strong, then it softened through the summer and fall before beginning to recover. What you have is a market that knows where it has been and is working its way back.

The main drag on the score is overvaluation. PropertyIQ estimates Provo homes are 57.7% overvalued relative to long-run fundamental value as of February 2026. That is a significant premium. Markets that carry that level of overvaluation face headwinds when interest rates stay elevated, because the affordability pressure compounds against buyers who already need high incomes to qualify.

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The BYU and Tech Economy

Provo's economic engine is unusually concentrated but unusually durable. Brigham Young University enrolls approximately 35,000 students and anchors the metro's rental market in ways that insulate landlords from some of the demand volatility that hits other markets in economic downturns.

The broader Silicon Slopes technology corridor stretches from Salt Lake City through Provo and includes major employers in software, cybersecurity, and financial technology. Companies like Adobe, Qualtrics, and a dense ecosystem of startups have established Provo as one of the more relevant tech markets outside the coasts.

The metro unemployment rate was 3.7% as of November 2025. That is below the national average. Employment in tech and education is relatively stable, which supports both owner-occupant demand and rental demand from workers and students who cannot yet afford to buy.

The median age is 25.6 years, the youngest figure in this batch of markets. That demographic profile creates persistent demand for housing from young adults, but it also reflects a population that is more likely to rent than buy at current price levels.

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Provo Housing Market Velocity

The data behind the score tells a story of moderate activity, not a hot market, but not a stalled one either.

Home sales rose 7.83% year over year as of February 2026. That is positive momentum. New listings rose 7.09% year over year, meaning supply and demand are both increasing at similar rates, a sign of balance rather than imbalance.

Days on market stood at 56 as of February 2026. That is slower than competitive markets like Lincoln (44 days) or Buffalo, but faster than distressed markets. Sellers are not waiting indefinitely, but buyers have time to be thoughtful.

The price cut percentage was 17.57%. That is elevated. Roughly 1 in 6 sellers is reducing their asking price, which indicates that initial pricing is frequently optimistic and that buyers have some negotiating leverage. That figure is worth watching. In the high-score markets in the PropertyIQ dataset, price cut percentages typically run below 8%. Provo's 17.57% reflects a market where seller expectations have not fully recalibrated to the post-2022 rate environment.

The pending ratio of 58.7% indicates that active buyers are absorbing a solid share of inventory. That is a healthy absorption signal even in the context of the elevated price cut rate.

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Affordability: The Core Challenge

Provo's affordability profile is the most significant constraint on the score.

The Zillow home value for the Provo-Orem-Lehi metro was $538,771 as of January 31, 2026. The median listing price was $556,614 as of February 2026. The income required to afford a median-priced home at current rates is $147,946. The metro's median household income is $96,745, a gap that reflects real affordability stress for the majority of households.

PropertyIQ estimates that a median-income household would need approximately 10.3 years to save a standard down payment in Provo. That compares unfavorably with markets like Lincoln at 7.3 years or Greensboro at 7.4 years. The entry barrier is high and rising with price appreciation.

The rent index was $1,724 per month as of December 31, 2025. Using the Zillow home value of $538,771, the gross rent yield on a typical Provo property is approximately 3.8%. For investors seeking current income, that yield is thin relative to markets in the Midwest or Southeast. Provo's investor case has historically been built on appreciation, and the 5-year home price growth of 4.19% as of February 2026 shows that appreciation story has cooled considerably from the 2021 to 2022 peak.

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The Overvaluation Problem

A 57.7% overvaluation estimate is a number that requires context.

PropertyIQ calculates overvaluation as the percentage gap between current market prices and the level implied by long-run income and rent fundamentals. A market that is 57.7% overvalued is not necessarily going to crash. It does mean that prices have run ahead of what the underlying income and rent base would support if rates remain elevated and speculative demand fades.

For context: Austin scored 18 on the PropertyIQ index in early 2026, with overvaluation estimates in the 40% to 50% range. Provo is not Austin, it has stronger employment anchors and a younger demographic. But the overvaluation overhang is real and it is why the score sits at 67 rather than 80.

Investors entering Provo should underwrite carefully. A 3.8% gross rent yield at $539K leaves very thin margin for operating expenses, vacancy, and capital expenditure. At current price levels, Provo works better as an appreciation play for buyers with long time horizons than as a cash-flow vehicle.

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Provo vs. Salt Lake City

Investors evaluating Utah typically compare Provo and Salt Lake City. Both metros have benefited from the Silicon Slopes technology migration, but they present different profiles.

Salt Lake City is larger, more economically diverse, and has a more established commercial real estate ecosystem. Provo is younger, more university-anchored, and has a tech concentration that skews toward startups and software. Provo's median home value of $538,771 is lower than Salt Lake City proper, though both metros carry significant overvaluation.

For rental investors specifically, Provo's BYU-driven student population creates consistent demand in the off-peak periods when other student-oriented markets soften. That is a structural advantage for investors who own near campus.

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What the Score Recovery Means

Provo's movement from 47 in December 2025 to 67 in February 2026 reflects improving supply-demand balance. The correction in scores during the summer and fall of 2025 was likely driven by affordability pressure and inventory normalization. The recovery in late 2025 and early 2026 suggests some rebalancing has occurred.

Whether Provo can sustain a move into the 70-plus tier depends on whether the overvaluation metric contracts. That would require either meaningful price declines, which the current data does not support, or income growth that brings buyers back into the market at current prices. Given Provo's tech employment base, the income growth scenario is plausible, but not fast-moving.

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Key Market Data (as of February 28, 2026)

• PropertyIQ Score: 67/100 (Grade: D+)
• Zillow Home Value: $538,771 (as of January 31, 2026)
• Median Listing Price: $556,614 (as of February 1, 2026)
• Rent Index: $1,724/month (as of December 31, 2025)
• Home Value YoY: -1.86% (listing price)
• Home Value 5-Year: +4.19%
• Home Price Forecast: +1.6% (next 12 months, Zillow)
• Days on Market: 56 (as of February 1, 2026)
• Inventory YoY: +4.64%
• Home Sales YoY: +7.83%
• Price Cut Percentage: 17.57%
• Unemployment Rate: 3.7% (as of November 2025)
• Median Household Income: $96,745 (2023 Census)
• Population: 695,895 (2023 Census)
• Overvaluation Estimate: 57.7%
• Income Required to Buy: $147,946
• Median Age: 25.6
• Score Trend: +15 points over 6 months
• Geography: Provo-Orem-Lehi, UT Metro (CBSA 39340)
• Score Date: February 28, 2026

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What This Means for Investors and Buyers

For long-term appreciation investors: Provo at 67 is a recovering market with structural demand from technology employment and the youngest metro demographics in the Intermountain West. The overvaluation overhang is real, but Provo has a growth story with more durability than typical Sun Belt overshoot markets. Entry at current pricing requires conviction that income growth will close the affordability gap.

For cash-flow investors: A gross rent yield of approximately 3.8% at current prices is not sufficient for meaningful cash flow at current mortgage rates. Provo is not a cash-flow market in 2026. Investors who bought in 2018 to 2020 at much lower basis prices may be seeing acceptable yields. New buyers are not.

For out-of-state investors: Provo's property management ecosystem is competent but concentrated around the university rental market. Investors targeting non-student-oriented properties should research management options carefully before committing capital remotely.

For homebuyers: A score of 67 and a 17.57% price cut rate means buyers have more negotiating room in Provo than in the high-score markets. The affordability pressure is real: an income of $147,946 to afford median pricing is a high bar. Buyers who can clear that bar will find a market with competitive fundamentals that is less frenzied than it was in 2021 to 2022.

A score of 67 is above average but not a blanket endorsement of any specific transaction. It tells you the market conditions are better than most, not that every property pencils out.

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How PropertyIQ Scores Provo

The PropertyIQ Score is a 0 to 100 composite index updated monthly. It incorporates Zillow home value data, Realtor.com listing metrics, Census income and demographic data, and economic indicators across more than 400 U.S. metros.

A score of 50 represents the national average. Provo's score of 67 as of February 28, 2026 places the metro above the national average with a positive 6-month trend. The primary factors limiting a higher score are the elevated overvaluation estimate and the affordability gap between median income and median home prices.

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