Sacramento Scores a 93 Despite 72% Overvaluation. Here Is Why.

Sacramento scores a 93 out of 100 on the PropertyIQ index as of February 28, 2026.

The same data set shows Sacramento is 71.9% overvalued relative to local fundamentals. Home values are down 2.78% year over year. Zillow forecasts -0.2% near-term. The income needed to buy at current prices is approximately $159,955. The median household income is $93,986 (2023 Census).

A score of 93 with these figures raises a legitimate question: what is the score measuring?

The Supply Constraint Explains the Score

There are only 3,307 homes for sale in Sacramento as of February 2026 -- in a metro of 2.4 million people. That is roughly one home for every 727 residents. Compare to Miami: 47,114 homes in a metro of 6.2 million, or one per 132 residents. Tight supply produces high scores regardless of valuation. Sacramento's supply constraint is structural, driven by California's land use restrictions and permitting environment.

Demand Is Executing Against That Constrained Supply

Pending-to-active ratio: 0.5935 -- 59% of listings going under contract. Homes average 41 days on market. The sale-to-list ratio is 99.4% as of November 2025. Home sales volume is up 9.33% year over year. These numbers show that buyers are actively competing for available inventory.

Market Data at a Glance

Median listing price: $601,795 as of February 2026. Average rent: approximately $2,206/month as of December 2025. Monthly gross rent-to-price ratio: roughly 0.37%.

What the Score Measures vs. What It Does Not

The PropertyIQ Score measures current supply-demand balance. A high score means conditions favor sellers and supply is constrained. It does not measure whether prices are sustainable relative to local incomes.

Sacramento scores a 93 on the former. On the latter, the data shows meaningful overvaluation that Zillow expects to continue declining.

Portland shows the same dynamic at a lower price point. Both markets demonstrate that supply constraint and price pressure can coexist. High score, falling prices, negative forecast. These are not contradictions -- they are measuring different things.

PropertyIQ score as of February 28, 2026. Listing and inventory data as of February 1, 2026. Rent and forecast data as of December 2025. Census and economic data 2023-2025. All data for informational purposes only.