San Diego, CA Housing Market Forecast 2026

Will San Diego, CA Home Prices Crash in 2026?

Based solely on the momentum data provided, San Diego does not currently show the kind of momentum that would indicate a home price crash in 2026. The PropertyIQ Score is 45 out of 100, slightly below the state average of 50. That suggests demand momentum is softer than the typical California market, but it is not collapsing. The 12 month home value momentum is positive at 0.63 percent, which means values have firmed mildly over the past year. The 3 month momentum is slightly negative at -0.39 percent, pointing to recent cooling. Median days on market is 45 days, and 20.0 percent of listings have had a price cut. These are signs of an easing or cooling market, not a sharp downward break. The data does not show the severe price declines, rapid rise in time on market, or extreme seller capitulation that would typically accompany a crash. It also does not provide enough forward-looking detail to rule out future deterioration, but the current momentum readings do not point to a crash.

Momentum Signals

The individual score drivers give a mixed but broadly cooling picture. The 12 month home value momentum of 0.63 percent is positive, signaling that year-over-year home values have been firming slightly. That annual measure is supported by the year-over-year home value change of negative $5, which on a median home value near $930,785 is essentially flat. The 3 month home value momentum is -0.39 percent, indicating that the most recent quarterly trend has cooled and turned mildly negative. This contrast between the 12 month and 3 month momentum measures suggests that earlier firmness has given way to near-term softening.

Median days on market of 45 days signals a steady pace, not a market that is rapidly seizing up. A 45 day median without historical comparison should be read as current steadiness rather than acceleration. The share of listings with a price cut is 20.0 percent. That means one in five active listings has had an asking price reduction, which signals sellers are adjusting to softer demand. A 20 percent price cut share is consistent with cooling but does not indicate distressed selling or panic.

How San Diego, CA Compares

Against the California benchmarks provided, San Diego remains a higher priced and higher income market, but its demand momentum score is slightly weaker. The median home value in San Diego is $930,785, compared with the state average of $764,158. The rent index is $2,994, above the state average of $2,036. Median household income is $106,268, above the state average of $99,122. Unemployment is 4.7 percent, lower than the state average of 5.1 percent. Even with those higher price and income levels, San Diego’s PropertyIQ Score of 45 is below the state average of 50, meaning the demand momentum signal is weaker than the state norm despite higher home values, higher rents, and higher incomes.

Population growth is listed as N/A, so that comparison cannot be made. No national benchmarks were provided, so a direct comparison to national averages cannot be made from this data. The only available comparison is against the California state averages.

The Bottom Line for 2026

The current momentum data points toward a San Diego market that is cooling rather than crashing. The PropertyIQ Score of 45, with a confidence grade of A, indicates a moderate softening in demand momentum relative to the state average. Twelve month price momentum remains slightly positive, while the three month signal has turned mildly negative, and market friction measures such as 45 days on market and a 20 percent price cut share are consistent with an easing market. San Diego’s higher median home value and rent index, combined with lower unemployment and higher median household income than the state, provide a backdrop of relative economic stability, but the below-average momentum score suggests near-term demand is not strengthening. The data does not show a crash, nor does it show accelerating price growth; it shows a market that is cooling in the near term. That is the clearest read from the provided momentum data for 2026.