Texas Real Estate in 2026: What the Score Data Shows About Every Major Metro

Texas has been the dominant real estate investing narrative for the past decade. Business-friendly. No income tax. Population growth. The Sun Belt story at its most compelling.

The PropertyIQ scores as of February 2026 tell a more complicated story.

Every major Texas metro is currently scoring below the national midpoint. Here is what the data shows.

The Scores (as of February 28, 2026)

• Austin, TX: 18 out of 100
• San Antonio, TX: 21 out of 100
• Dallas, TX: 31 out of 100
• Houston, TX: 32 out of 100

These are not outlier readings. They reflect a consistent pattern across the state's four largest metros.

What Is Driving Low Scores Across Texas

The common thread is supply. Texas has been building aggressively. New construction sales in Houston alone were 2,281 units in November 2025. San Antonio saw 974 new construction sales in the same period. Supply is outpacing demand in most major Texas markets, and the data reflects it.

Austin (Score: 18)

Home values down 8.82% year over year as of February 2026. Inventory: 9,072 homes (up 14.77% YoY). 20% of listings have seen price cuts. Days on market: 76. Still 22.8% overvalued relative to local fundamentals. Zillow forecast: -2% near-term.

The market that grew fastest has corrected hardest. Austin's score of 18 reflects a market working through significant excess -- high inventory, softening demand, and a valuation gap still closing.

San Antonio (Score: 21)

San Antonio's situation mirrors Austin's in structure but at a lower price point. Home values down 2.14% year over year as of February 2026. Inventory: 12,247 homes (up 15.3% YoY). 22.58% of listings have seen price cuts -- the highest of the four Texas metros. Days on market: 79.

Median listing price: $319,990. Overvalued by just 5.4% -- more affordable than Austin but facing similar supply dynamics. Zillow forecast: -0.3% near-term.

Dallas (Score: 31)

Dallas has shown more resilience than Austin or San Antonio but remains in the bottom tier. Score of 31 reflects elevated inventory and moderate demand relative to supply. Median listing price: $455,000. Dallas scored 31 out of 100 as of February 28, 2026.

Houston (Score: 32)

Houston has the largest absolute inventory of any Texas metro: 30,462 homes for sale as of February 2026, up 14.3% year over year. Demand score: 0 out of 100. Despite this, Houston is only 7.4% overvalued relative to fundamentals -- relatively modest given the price level. Median listing: $349,999. Zillow forecast: +0.9% near-term.

The Exception: Abilene (Score: 79)

Not every Texas market is struggling. Abilene scores a 79 as of February 28, 2026 -- the highest-scoring Texas metro in the PropertyIQ index. Smaller markets with less speculative activity during the 2021-2022 run often avoided the inventory accumulation that is weighing on larger metros.

What This Means

Texas's long-term fundamentals have not changed. Population is still growing. The business environment is still favorable. But the current score data reflects a market cycle: 2021-2022 brought demand surges and price spikes; 2024-2026 brought supply responses and price adjustments.

Investors with a 5-10 year horizon may be looking at Texas entry points. Investors seeking near-term performance have better-scoring options in the Midwest and Northeast right now.

PropertyIQ scores as of February 28, 2026. Listing data as of February 1, 2026. Forecast data as of December 2025. All data for informational purposes only.