Toledo, Ohio Real Estate Market 2026: Score 86, and Median Incomes Already Cover the Mortgage

Toledo, Ohio scores 86 out of 100 on the PropertyIQ index as of February 2026.

That puts Toledo firmly in the B tier, a market where demand still outpaces supply despite inventory levels that have risen sharply over the past year. What makes Toledo stand out from other Midwest metros at a similar score is something structural: the income required to buy a home here is lower than the area median household income.

PropertyIQ scores Toledo an 86 out of 100 as of February 28, 2026. Scores are updated monthly using Zillow, Census, and Realtor.com data.

The Numbers Behind the Score

The median listing price in Toledo is $199,897 as of February 1, 2026. That price point sits below the national median by a significant margin and well within range for Midwest wage levels.

To purchase at the median price, a household needs an estimated annual income of $53,132. The Toledo metro median household income is $63,749 as of 2023 Census data.

That is a gap of $10,617 in the buyer's favor. Toledo is one of only a handful of large metros in the United States where the income required to qualify for a mortgage at the median price is below what the average household already earns. In most major markets, buyers need to earn significantly more than the local median. In Toledo, the math works.

The overvaluation reading is -14.7% as of February 2026, meaning Toledo home prices sit 14.7% below what local income fundamentals would support. That is a meaningful discount.

Inventory Has Risen, But From a Low Floor

The notable shift in Toledo over the past 12 months is a 30.16% year-over-year increase in total inventory as of February 2026.

A 30% inventory increase sounds bearish, and in a market already oversupplied, it would be. But Toledo was coming from extremely compressed inventory levels. The demand score is 83.28 out of 100, indicating that absorption remains strong relative to the new supply entering the market.

The sale-to-list ratio is 100% as of November 2025. Sellers are still receiving their asking price on average. Price cuts affect only a moderate share of the active listings, consistent with a market in balance rather than one tilting sharply toward buyers.

What the Forecast Shows

Zillow forecasts 2.7% home value appreciation over the next 12 months as of December 2025. That is a measured, stable forecast without the volatility projections attached to Sun Belt metros that overbuilt during the 2020-2022 boom.

Toledo's five-year appreciation record reflects gradual, income-supported growth. Because the market never experienced the speculative price spike of coastal metros or high-growth Sun Belt cities, it also avoided the sharp correction phase those markets subsequently went through.

How Toledo Compares to Other Ohio Markets

Columbus, Ohio and Cincinnati, Ohio are both active Ohio markets covered in the PropertyIQ dataset. Toledo's score of 86 places it above markets with less favorable supply-demand balances while reflecting the added inventory pressure that has entered the Toledo market over the past year.

Cleveland, Ohio has historically run tight on inventory relative to population. Toledo shows a different pattern: a larger inventory base that has grown, but demand strong enough that the market has not softened to below-asking territory.

The Economic Foundation

The Toledo metro population is approximately 685,345 as of 2023 Census data. The area encompasses a manufacturing and logistics economy with proximity to Detroit, which provides additional employment diversity.

The Zillow rent index for Toledo reflects a market where renting and owning are both accessible relative to local wages. The homeownership rate is above the national average, consistent with a market where buying makes financial sense for a broader segment of the population.

What This Market Is Not

Toledo scoring 86 does not mean it is a high-growth speculative market. The PropertyIQ Score measures the current supply-demand relationship, not future price momentum alone. A market can score 86 because it is structurally tight on supply and well-supported by income fundamentals, without being a market where prices are accelerating rapidly.

The 30% inventory increase warrants attention. If that trajectory continues for another two to three quarters, Toledo's score will reflect it. The current 86 reflects a market still in demand-supply balance, but one where the trend in supply is worth monitoring.

PropertyIQ score as of February 28, 2026. Listing and inventory data as of February 1, 2026. Zillow home value data as of January 31, 2026. Sale-to-list data as of November 30, 2025. Forecast data as of December 2025. Census data as of 2023. Economic data as of November 2025. All data for informational purposes only.