Wilmington, North Carolina Real Estate Market 2026: Score 28, 67.7% Overvalued, Inventory Up 18%

Wilmington, North Carolina scores 28 out of 100 on the PropertyIQ index as of February 2026.

The score reflects a market where a five-year appreciation run of 30.36% has pushed prices significantly ahead of local income levels. Wilmington is 67.7% overvalued as of February 2026. When prices are that far ahead of the income base, the score cannot climb without either a substantial price correction or sustained income growth.

PropertyIQ scores Wilmington a 28 out of 100 as of February 28, 2026. Scores are updated monthly using Zillow, Census, and Realtor.com data.

What Drove Wilmington to a Score of 28

Wilmington is a coastal lifestyle market. Cape Fear River to the west, Atlantic Ocean to the east, and the combination of beaches, mild climate, and proximity to Research Triangle Park to the north has made it a consistent destination for retirees, remote workers, and second-home buyers. That migration demand drove the 30.36% five-year appreciation that the data now shows as the primary valuation problem.

The Zillow home value is $434,368 as of January 31, 2026. The median listing price is $482,700 as of February 2026. The calculated affordable home price based on the metro median household income of $73,687 is $277,231. The income required to purchase at the median listing price is $128,300.

The affordability gap is $54,613. A Wilmington buyer needs to earn 74% more than the metro median to afford the median listing without being cost-burdened. That gap, relative to a coastal lifestyle market that attracts buyers from higher-income origin markets, has partially sustained prices. But the local income base cannot absorb prices at this level in volume.

The overvaluation reading of 67.7% is among the highest in the PropertyIQ dataset. Only a small number of markets in the database show higher overvaluation readings, and they are uniformly coastal lifestyle destinations where migration demand from expensive origin markets has detached local prices from local income fundamentals.

Wilmington NC Housing Market: Supply and Inventory

Inventory is up 18.24% year over year to 3,456 active listings as of February 2026. New listings increased 4.97% year over year to 1,394 units in February 2026. Both figures show supply expanding.

Days on market is 76 as of February 2026. Homes in Wilmington are sitting for 2.5 months on average before going under contract. In a tight market, homes sell in days or weeks. At 76 DOM, sellers are waiting.

The price-cut rate is 15.92% as of February 2026. Approximately 16% of active listings have been reduced from their original asking price. Sellers who listed at the top of the market are gradually accepting lower prices.

The pending ratio is 0.47 as of February 2026. Wilmington's pending conversion rate is moderate and the highest in this batch, which reflects the demand score of 52.2, also the highest in this batch of five markets. Wilmington has weaker scores but more active buyer engagement than most markets at this score level.

The supply score is 29.4. Supply is more constrained than in many lower-score markets, which is a partial explanation for why prices have not corrected more aggressively. When sellers hold back listings in a declining market, prices stay elevated longer.

Wilmington Real Estate: Demand Data

The demand score for Wilmington is 52.2 as of February 2026. This is the most notable differentiator in the Wilmington data. A market scoring 28 overall with a demand score of 52 is a market where buyers are engaged but prices are the primary obstacle. The score is not driven by dead demand. It is driven by prices that have overrun the income support level.

The sale-to-list ratio is 97.86% as of November 2025. Buyers are receiving an average 2.14% discount from listing price. That is a moderate discount consistent with a slow but not collapsed market.

Home sales increased 8.8% year over year as of February 2026. Transaction volume is recovering, which is consistent with the moderate demand score. Some buyers are re-entering at current prices, likely those with higher income or equity from prior residences.

The Zillow one-year price forecast is 3.2% as of December 2025. Zillow's model sees modest appreciation ahead, a reflection of the demand score recovery signal and the constrained supply environment. The forward signal is stabilization with slight positive movement, not a sharp correction or acceleration.

Wilmington NC: Rent Data and Investment Analysis

The Zillow rent index for Wilmington is $1,680 per month as of December 2025. At a Zillow home value of $434,368, the gross rent multiplier is approximately 21.5.

A GRM of 21.5 is on the higher end for a market scoring 28. Cash flow investors evaluating Wilmington at this price and rent level will find the numbers difficult. Monthly gross rent covers a smaller proportion of carrying costs than in lower-priced markets. The income required to afford Wilmington rents without cost burden is approximately $67,192 per year against a metro median of $73,687. Renters are near the affordability boundary.

The rent-for-houses percentile is 19 out of 100 as of December 2025. Wilmington rents are in the lower half of the PropertyIQ dataset on an absolute basis, which is consistent with a coastal lifestyle market where the premium is in ownership prices, not rental rates.

The five-year appreciation rate is 30.36%. Wilmington's long-term equity performance is stronger than most markets in this batch. The 30% appreciation over five years means existing owners have generated significant equity, which funds their ability to hold rather than sell at current prices.

New construction sales were 67 units per month as of November 2025. Population is 440,578 as of 2023 Census data. The median age is 45.1, reflecting the retirement and lifestyle migration profile that has driven Wilmington's growth.

How Wilmington Compares to Other North Carolina Markets

Raleigh scores 44. Charlotte scores 39. Durham scores higher due to the Research Triangle employment base. Greensboro scores 57. Winston-Salem scores 55.

Wilmington at 28 is the weakest major market in the North Carolina set. The coast premium that drove Wilmington's appreciation has left it structurally overvalued relative to its own income base in a way that inland Triangle and Triad markets have avoided. Charlotte, Raleigh, and Greensboro all have stronger employment diversity and lower overvaluation readings.

For buyers comparing coastal North Carolina to inland options, the score signal is direct: the inland markets with stronger employment bases are scoring 20 to 30 points higher than Wilmington. The lifestyle trade-off is real, but the market conditions are meaningfully different.

Myrtle Beach, South Carolina scores 8, the weakest coastal Southeast market in the PropertyIQ dataset. Wilmington at 28 is a stronger market than Myrtle Beach, reflecting the higher income base and more active demand signal in coastal North Carolina versus coastal South Carolina.

PropertyIQ score as of February 28, 2026. Listing and inventory data as of February 1, 2026. Zillow home value data as of January 31, 2026. Sale-to-list data as of November 30, 2025. Forecast data as of December 2025. Census data as of 2023. Economic data as of November 2025. All data for informational purposes only.