Lubbock, TX Real Estate Market 2026: Score 11, Home Values Down 3% Over 5 Years

Lubbock, Texas scores 11 out of 100 on the PropertyIQ index as of February 2026.

For a Texas market, this score stands out. Texas cities like Austin score 18, Dallas-Fort Worth score 31, and San Antonio score varies by data period, but these are large metros with diverse economic engines. Lubbock is a mid-sized university city with a 3.5% unemployment rate and homes priced below $250,000. Yet it scores 11. The reason is simple: home values have declined 3% over five years, and demand remains structurally insufficient to absorb available supply at any price that makes investment math work.

PropertyIQ scores Lubbock an 11 out of 100 as of February 28, 2026. Scores are updated monthly using Zillow, Census, and Realtor.com data.

What a Score of 11 Reveals About Lubbock

The demand score for Lubbock is 27.4 out of 100. The supply score is 75.9. That combination defines the problem precisely: there is plenty of supply and very few buyers competing for it.

A supply score of 75.9 means the available inventory is large relative to what the market can absorb. A demand score of 27.4 means buyer activity is low relative to what would be needed to clear that inventory. The hotness score of 51.7 is a midpoint reading that reflects a market moving slowly in both directions rather than stagnating from a single constraint.

The pending ratio is 0.4122 as of February 2026. For every 100 homes listed, 41 are under contract. That number sits below the 0.50 threshold that typically separates buyer's markets from seller's markets.

Lubbock Texas Housing Market: Price and Appreciation Data

The median listing price in Lubbock is $247,250 as of February 1, 2026. The Zillow home value for the metro is $161,406 as of January 31, 2026. The gap between these two figures, $85,844, reflects the composition of the listing pool. Higher-end listings are pulling the median listing price well above where most homes are actually transacting.

Year-over-year appreciation is negative 1.1% as of February 2026. The Zillow home value has declined from the prior year. Month-over-month is positive 3.45%, but monthly readings carry high variance for smaller markets and should not be read as a trend reversal on their own.

The five-year appreciation rate is negative 3.0% as of February 2026. This is the score's most important data point. In a national environment where most markets showed 20% to 60% appreciation over the same period, Lubbock has produced negative five-year returns on home values. Buyers who purchased in 2021 at the height of the Texas market run-up are sitting on nominal losses.

The Zillow one-year price forecast is 1.0% as of December 2025. Even the forward expectation reflects a near-flat trajectory.

Inventory is 1,480 homes as of February 2026, up 7.6% year over year. New listings are 562, up 3.69% year over year. Supply is growing faster than demand, which is consistent with the declining value trend.

Days on market is 52 as of February 2026. Price reductions affect 13.9% of active listings. The DOM reading is not extreme for a market with weak demand; Lubbock's relatively affordable price points mean that motivated sellers can cut to move homes without an extended waiting period.

Lubbock Real Estate Market: Affordability and Income Analysis

The income required to buy at the median listing price is $65,718 per year as of February 2026. The Lubbock metro median household income is $62,288 per year as of 2023 Census data.

The income-to-buy ratio is 1.06, meaning a median-income household is just slightly below the qualifying threshold for the median listing price. This is a functionally affordable market from an income-to-payment perspective, which is why the score's weakness is surprising at first glance.

The overvaluation calculation shows Lubbock at negative 5.3% as of February 2026. The market is actually priced slightly below income-adjusted valuations. The Zillow home value of $161,406 sits approximately 5% below what the income model suggests the market can support.

A market that is priced below income-supported valuations with 3.5% unemployment and 57% homeownership should not score 11. The problem is that affordability alone does not generate a high PropertyIQ score. Price stability and appreciation trajectory also matter, and Lubbock's five-year negative appreciation is a direct drag on the composite.

The median age in Lubbock is 32.3 years as of 2023 Census data, the youngest demographic profile in this batch by a significant margin. The homeownership rate is 57.06%, which is low and consistent with a college-heavy population. Texas Tech University's presence means a large portion of the resident population rents rather than owns, and the household formation and income trajectories of a college-town renter pool do not generate the purchase demand that drives appreciation.

The unemployment rate is 3.5% as of November 2025. This is the best employment reading among the five markets in this batch. Strong employment has not translated into housing demand because a significant share of the workforce is students and young professionals with limited buying power.

Lubbock TX Rent Data and Cash Flow Metrics

The Zillow rent index for Lubbock is $1,383 per month as of December 2025. At a Zillow home value of $161,406, the gross rent multiplier is approximately 9.7.

A GRM of 9.7 is among the better cash flow ratios in the dataset. Markets with GRMs below 10 are typically the most favorable for rental cash flow math before financing costs, vacancy, and maintenance. Lubbock's combination of low home prices and functional rental demand from the Texas Tech population produces a rent-to-price ratio that attracts yield-focused investors.

The trade-off is explicit: Lubbock offers strong cash flow metrics combined with negative long-term appreciation. An investor buying at $161,000 for $1,383 monthly rent is running a different calculation than an investor seeking capital growth. The score of 11 reflects the appreciation problem, not the cash flow profile.

The sale-to-list ratio is 98.05% as of November 2025. Sellers are receiving close to asking price when transactions occur, which means the low GRM is real and accessible in the current market.

Why Lubbock Scores Below Other Texas Markets

Texas markets in the same approximate price range show mixed scores. El Paso at 46 has stronger appreciation momentum and a different employment base driven by Fort Bliss and military employment. Amarillo at 19 reflects the agricultural and energy sector dynamics of the Texas Panhandle, which differs from Lubbock's university-driven economy.

Lubbock's score of 11 reflects a specific structural condition: a college-town market where student demand creates rental yield but does not generate the household formation and equity-building purchase activity that produces sustained appreciation. The five-year negative return on home values is the data's way of quantifying what that structure looks like across a full cycle.

For buyers considering Lubbock as an owner-occupant destination, the 3.5% unemployment rate, the affordability of the market relative to income, and the quality-of-life characteristics of a Big 12 university city are genuine positives. The PropertyIQ score of 11 addresses market investment dynamics, not quality of life.

For investors, Lubbock is a yield market with a transparent trade-off: strong cash flow metrics, no appreciation thesis. The score captures that profile accurately.

PropertyIQ score as of February 28, 2026. Listing and inventory data as of February 1, 2026. Zillow home value data as of January 31, 2026. Sale-to-list data as of November 30, 2025. Forecast data as of December 2025. Census data as of 2023. Economic data as of November 2025. All data for informational purposes only.