Memphis, TN Housing Market Forecast 2026
A momentum-based outlook built from real market data: the PropertyIQ demand score, days on market, and price-cut trends — refreshed monthly, with a confidence grade. No speculation, no price targets.
PropertyIQ Score
Will Memphis, TN Home Prices Crash in 2026?
Based solely on the momentum data provided, the current numbers do not show a crash pattern. The PropertyIQ Score for Memphis is 13 out of 100, where 50 equals the state average. That places demand momentum well below the state baseline. The 3-month home value momentum is -1.04 percent, meaning short-term price movement has turned negative. The 12-month home value momentum is 2.39 percent, still positive but modest. The year-over-year home value change is -$12, essentially flat rather than a steep decline. Median days on market at 66 days and a 24.2 percent share of listings with a price cut point to cooling conditions, but they do not indicate accelerating price deterioration. The data describes an easing and cooling market, not one currently flashing a crash signal. This momentum outlook cannot determine whether prices will crash in 2026; it can only show that the current momentum does not support a crash reading.
Momentum Signals
The PropertyIQ Score of 13 is shaped by several momentum drivers. The 12-month home value momentum of 2.39 percent indicates that home values firmed modestly over the past year. However, the 3-month home value momentum of -1.04 percent shows a short-term pullback, meaning recent price movement has cooled. This combination suggests the market lost some momentum in the most recent quarter after a slightly positive year-long trend. Median days on market of 66 days means homes are taking more than two months to move, which points to reduced buyer urgency. The share of listings with a price cut at 24.2 percent means nearly one in four listings has had a price reduction, another sign that sellers are adjusting to softer demand. The year-over-year home value change of -$12 adds little directional push because it is essentially flat. Homes for sale total 5,410, but no benchmark is provided to assess whether that level is elevated or limited. The data does not include population growth, so underlying migration-driven demand cannot be assessed.
How Memphis, TN Compares
No national benchmarks were provided, so this comparison is limited to the state averages. Memphis has a median home value of $246,065, which is above the state average of $225,822 by roughly $20,000. The rent index in Memphis is $1,422, compared with the state average of $914, a difference of more than $500. Median household income in Memphis is $64,743, above the state average of $58,773. These figures place Memphis above state averages on home values, rents, and income. The unemployment rate in Memphis is 4.8 percent, above the state average of 4.1 percent, indicating a softer local labor market. The PropertyIQ Score of 13 is far below the state average of 50, meaning demand momentum in Memphis is significantly weaker than the state's market momentum. Homes for sale in Memphis total 5,410, but no state inventory benchmark was provided, so no comparison can be made. Population growth is listed as N/A, so that comparison is missing as well.
The Bottom Line for 2026
The current momentum data for Memphis points to a cooling market with easing demand rather than a sharp decline. The PropertyIQ Score of 13 out of 100, with an A confidence grade, gives a reliable reading that demand momentum is well below the state's 50-point baseline. The short-term home value momentum is negative, days on market are extended at 66 days, and price cuts are present in nearly a quarter of listings. Those are all signs of a market losing near-term heat. However, the 12-month home value momentum remains modestly positive at 2.39 percent, and the year-over-year home value change of -$12 is essentially flat. That combination does not show a crash pattern in the provided data. Memphis sits above state averages on median home value, rent index, and median household income, while its unemployment rate is higher and its momentum score is far below the state baseline. Overall, the 2026 momentum outlook is one of cooling and softening, with no current evidence in these indicators of a crash. The missing population growth data and the absence of national benchmarks leave some uncertainty about broader demand trends. The A confidence grade supports the reliability of this cooling signal.
What Drives the Memphis, TN Outlook
Frequently Asked Questions
Will Memphis, TN home prices crash in 2026?
Momentum data does not predict prices, but it shows direction. Memphis, TN has a PropertyIQ Score of 13 (confidence grade F), indicating very weak demand momentum. A score of 50 equals the market's state average. PropertyIQ does not publish price-crash predictions; it tracks the demand signals that historically move first: price momentum, days on market, and the share of listings with price cuts.
What is the Memphis, TN PropertyIQ Score?
Memphis, TN currently scores 13 out of 99 (confidence grade F). The PropertyIQ Score measures demand momentum from four inputs: 12-month price momentum, 3-month price momentum, median days on market, and price-reduced share. It is calibrated so 50 equals the state average, and it is refreshed monthly.
How fast are homes selling in Memphis, TN?
The median listing in Memphis, TN currently spends 66 days on the market. Days on market is one of the four inputs to the PropertyIQ Score: shorter times signal firming demand, longer times signal easing demand.
Are Memphis, TN home prices rising or falling right now?
Over the last year, Memphis, TN home values rose 2.4%. That is measured history, not a forecast; the PropertyIQ Score combines it with days-on-market and price-cut data to read where demand is heading.
How current is this Memphis, TN forecast data?
This forecast is refreshed on a monthly cycle, with the latest figures current through July 2026. PropertyIQ recomputes the PropertyIQ Score every month using fresh price momentum data from Zillow and fresh days-on-market and price-cut data from Realtor.com, so the score always reflects the most recently completed reporting period rather than a static snapshot.