Memphis, TN Housing Market Forecast 2026
A momentum-based outlook built from real market data: the PropertyIQ demand score, days on market, and price-cut trends — refreshed monthly, with a confidence grade. No speculation, no price targets.
PropertyIQ Score
Will Memphis, TN Home Prices Crash in 2026?
The data does not point to a crash, and it does not support a boom. This is a momentum outlook, not a price forecast. The most recent three-month home value momentum reading is -1.35 percent, which shows easing in the short term. The twelve-month reading is 1.01 percent, a modestly positive longer view. A single quarter of decline is not evidence of a broader downturn, and the data provided cannot show how prices will move over the coming year. The year-over-year home value figure is listed as -9 with no unit label, so it should be read cautiously. It is also the one data point that differs in direction from the twelve-month momentum reading. Taken together, the signals are mixed rather than moving in one direction.
Momentum Signals
The PropertyIQ score of 14 out of 100 is a demand-momentum signal, and it sits well below the midpoint of 50 that represents the state average. The score's main drivers explain much of that position. Twelve-month home value momentum of 1.01 percent is positive but modest, suggesting values have risen slowly over the past year. Three-month momentum of -1.35 percent points to easing in the most recent quarter, which is the reading most sensitive to changing conditions. A median of 72 days on market indicates homes are taking a substantial amount of time to sell, which signals cooling buyer urgency. Finally, 24.3 percent of listings carrying a price cut shows that sellers are adjusting asking prices, a sign that negotiating room is widening. Together these drivers describe a demand picture that is softening rather than accelerating. For the year ahead, if the recent three-month trend continues, momentum may remain subdued. A decline in days on market or in the share of listings with price cuts would be an early sign of firming. The count of 5,404 homes for sale adds supply context, but no trend is provided for it, so its direction is unknown.
How Memphis, TN Compares
The median home value of $242,102 sits above the state average of $224,158, a gap of about $17,944. The rent index of $1,393 is well above the state figure of $947. The unemployment rate of 4.6 percent is higher than the state rate of 3.9 percent. Median household income of $66,401 is above the state level of $60,773. Higher home values and rents, alongside higher incomes, place Memphis above the state norm on price and rent levels. Its higher unemployment rate sets it apart from the state on labor conditions. National benchmarks were not provided, so no national comparison can be made. Population growth is listed as N/A, so the data cannot assess migration-driven demand.
The Bottom Line for 2026
Memphis carries a PropertyIQ score of 14 with a Confidence grade of A, so the momentum reading is assigned high confidence in its underlying signal. That signal describes a market where demand momentum is easing. Short-term home value momentum is negative, days on market are elevated at 72, and roughly one in four listings has a price cut. The twelve-month price trend remains modestly positive, which keeps the picture from being one-directional. The outlook for 2026 depends on whether the three-month momentum reading stabilizes, whether days on market shorten, and whether the share of price cuts declines. Population growth data and national benchmarks are missing, and the units of the year-over-year figure are unclear, so those gaps should be filled before drawing firmer conclusions. This summary describes momentum only and does not predict specific prices or percentage changes.
What Drives the Memphis, TN Outlook
Frequently Asked Questions
Will Memphis, TN home prices crash in 2026?
Momentum data does not predict prices, but it shows direction. Memphis, TN has a PropertyIQ Score of 14 (confidence grade F), indicating very weak demand momentum. A score of 50 equals the market's state average. PropertyIQ does not publish price-crash predictions; it tracks the demand signals that historically move first: price momentum, days on market, and the share of listings with price cuts.
What is the Memphis, TN PropertyIQ Score?
Memphis, TN currently scores 14 out of 99 (confidence grade F). The PropertyIQ Score measures demand momentum from four inputs: 12-month price momentum, 3-month price momentum, median days on market, and price-reduced share. It is calibrated so 50 equals the state average, and it is refreshed monthly.
How fast are homes selling in Memphis, TN?
The median listing in Memphis, TN currently spends 72 days on the market. Days on market is one of the four inputs to the PropertyIQ Score: shorter times signal firming demand, longer times signal easing demand.
Are Memphis, TN home prices rising or falling right now?
Over the last year, Memphis, TN home values rose 1.0%. That is measured history, not a forecast; the PropertyIQ Score combines it with days-on-market and price-cut data to read where demand is heading.
How current is this Memphis, TN forecast data?
This forecast is refreshed on a monthly cycle, with the latest figures current through September 2026. PropertyIQ recomputes the PropertyIQ Score every month using fresh price momentum data from Zillow and fresh days-on-market and price-cut data from Realtor.com, so the score always reflects the most recently completed reporting period rather than a static snapshot.