Miami vs Orlando Real Estate in 2026: What the PropertyIQ Score Shows

Miami vs Orlando real estate in 2026 comes down to a 31-point gap in the PropertyIQ Score and a fundamentally different set of pressures underneath each market. Miami scores 13 out of 100. Orlando scores 44 out of 100. Both are F grades by our methodology, but the distance between them reflects a real and meaningful difference in current fundamentals.

PropertyIQ scores both markets as of February 28, 2026.

Miami: 13 out of 100 (Grade: F) Orlando: 44 out of 100 (Grade: F)

Neither market is a clear buy right now. But Orlando is in a substantially better position on overvaluation, demand activity, and income support for current prices. If you are deciding between these two Florida metros, the data separates them cleanly.

Miami vs Orlando Real Estate 2026: Two Florida Markets, One Big Gap

Miami and Orlando share the same state, the same no-income-tax environment, and the same long-running population growth story. Both have drawn significant in-migration over the past five years. Both have strong tourism economies. Both have been watched closely by investors looking for exposure to the Florida market.

What the PropertyIQ Score measures is what is actually happening in each market right now: how prices compare to income fundamentals, how supply and demand are balanced, and what near-term price direction looks like. On all three dimensions, Miami and Orlando tell a different story in 2026.

The question most buyers and investors face is not whether Florida is a good long-term bet. The question is which market represents a reasonable entry point today, and which one carries risks that are not yet reflected in prices.

The 31-point gap in the PropertyIQ Score provides a direct answer. Here is what is driving each number.

Miami PropertyIQ Score: What Drives It

Miami scores 13 out of 100 as of February 28, 2026. That score puts Miami in the same territory as the most overextended markets PropertyIQ tracks nationally. The primary driver is not one isolated factor. It is the combination of massive overvaluation, weak demand, and a median income that falls far short of what current prices require.

Listing price and home value. The median listing price in Miami is $499,999 as of February 1, 2026. The Zillow home value estimate for the metro is $469,361 as of January 31, 2026. Both figures reflect a market that ran sharply higher during the pandemic-era buying surge and has not corrected to income-supportable levels.

Overvaluation. Miami is 81.5% overvalued relative to local income and rent fundamentals as of February 1, 2026. The income required to buy at current prices is $132,898. The median household income in Miami is $73,481 (2023 Census). That is a $59,417 gap between what the market demands and what the typical household earns. No other major Florida metro has a gap this wide. This overvaluation figure is the single heaviest weight on Miami's score.

Year-over-year price change. Miami home values fell 2.91% year over year as of February 1, 2026. Prices are moving in the right direction, but the correction so far has barely dented the overvaluation gap. At the current pace of decline, closing the 81.5% overvaluation gap would take years.

Demand signal. Miami's demand score is 5.69 out of 100 as of February 1, 2026. That is near the floor. Only 21.85% of active listings are going pending. The hotness score for the metro sits at 11.37 out of 100. Buyers are not transacting at a rate consistent with a healthy market. The pending ratio and demand score together signal a market where supply significantly outruns active buyer interest.

Days on market and price cuts. Homes in Miami sit on the market for 83 days on average as of February 1, 2026. Price cuts have been applied to 16.63% of active listings. Sale-to-list ratio is 96.30% as of November 30, 2025, meaning sellers are routinely accepting below asking price.

Zillow near-term forecast. Zillow projects Miami home values to increase 2.5% near-term as of December 31, 2025. That positive forecast is a partial counterweight and explains why Miami's score is 13 and not lower. But a 2.5% forward projection does not offset 81.5% current overvaluation. The forecast is a single input, not a saving factor.

5-year appreciation. Miami's 5-year home value change is +26.26% as of February 1, 2026. That tracks the pandemic-era surge. Long-term holders who bought before 2021 are sitting on substantial gains. That history does not help buyers entering today.

For more detail on the Miami market, see the Miami real estate market 2026 full profile.

Orlando PropertyIQ Score: What Drives It

Orlando scores 44 out of 100 as of February 28, 2026. That score reflects a market with real challenges, including meaningful overvaluation and elevated days on market, but one that has recovered from a lower point and shows substantially more demand activity than Miami.

Listing price and home value. The median listing price in Orlando is $415,000 as of February 1, 2026. The Zillow home value estimate is $383,846 as of January 31, 2026. Orlando entered the pandemic cycle at a lower absolute price level than Miami and has corrected more modestly from its peak.

Overvaluation. Orlando is 43.8% overvalued as of February 1, 2026. The income required to buy at current prices is $110,305. The median household income in Orlando is $75,611 (2023 Census). The gap is $34,694. That is still a stretched market, but it is less than 60% of the gap Miami carries. A household earning above the Orlando median has a clearer path toward qualification than the equivalent Miami household.

Year-over-year price change. Orlando home values fell 0.94% year over year as of February 1, 2026. The decline is modest and signals a market that has largely stabilized after the 2022 to 2024 correction period.

Demand signal. Orlando's demand score is 33.44 out of 100 as of February 1, 2026. That is nearly six times Miami's demand score of 5.69. The pending ratio in Orlando is 34.33%, meaning roughly one-third of active listings have accepted offers. The hotness score for the metro is 25.92 out of 100. These figures indicate a market where buyers are actively transacting, even if conditions are not exceptional.

Days on market and price cuts. Homes in Orlando sit on market for 82 days as of February 1, 2026, nearly identical to Miami. Price cuts are present on 20.66% of active listings, slightly higher than Miami's 16.63%. Sale-to-list ratio is 97.66% as of November 30, 2025, modestly better than Miami's 96.30%.

Zillow near-term forecast. Zillow projects Orlando home values to increase 1.9% near-term as of December 31, 2025. Both Florida metros are forecast to appreciate modestly, though Miami's forecast is slightly higher at 2.5%.

5-year appreciation. Orlando's 5-year home value change is +30.09% as of February 1, 2026. That figure exceeds Miami's 26.26% over the same window, which is notable given that Orlando entered the cycle at a lower price level.

For more context on the Orlando market, see the Orlando real estate market 2026 and Tampa vs Orlando real estate 2026 comparisons.

Miami vs Orlando Real Estate 2026: Head-to-Head on Valuation, Demand, and Risk

Here is the direct side-by-side across the metrics that matter most for investors and buyers (all data as of February 28, 2026, unless otherwise noted).

| Metric | Miami | Orlando | |---|---|---| | PropertyIQ Score | 13 | 44 | | Listing Price | $499,999 | $415,000 | | Zillow Home Value | $469,361 | $383,846 | | Home Value YoY | -2.91% | -0.94% | | Price per Sqft | $362 | $226 | | Overvalued % | 81.5% | 43.8% | | Inventory (active) | 47,114 | 12,764 | | Inventory YoY | -3.24% | -0.23% | | Days on Market | 83 | 82 | | Price Cuts | 16.63% | 20.66% | | Pending Ratio | 21.85% | 34.33% | | Demand Score | 5.69 | 33.44 | | Rent Index (monthly) | $2,655 | $1,929 | | Rent-to-Price Ratio | 0.57% | 0.50% | | Price Forecast (Zillow) | +2.5% | +1.9% | | 5-Year Appreciation | +26.26% | +30.09% | | Median Income | $73,481 | $75,611 | | Income to Buy | $132,898 | $110,305 | | Unemployment | 3.5% | 4.4% | | Population | 6.14M | 2.72M |

The rent-to-price calculation is worth examining closely for investors. Using Zillow home values and rent index data from late 2025 and early 2026:

• Miami: monthly rent of $2,655 on a $469,361 home = 0.57% monthly rent-to-price ratio
• Orlando: monthly rent of $1,929 on a $383,846 home = 0.50% monthly rent-to-price ratio

Miami's higher absolute rents produce a marginally better rent-to-price ratio despite the higher home values. That reflects Miami's luxury rental market and the concentration of high-income renters in the metro. However, Miami's rental market is also more volatile and more exposed to short-term rental regulatory changes than Orlando's. The rent figure does not account for vacancy, management costs, insurance premiums that have surged across South Florida, or the difficulty of obtaining affordable landlord insurance in a hurricane-exposed market.

Orlando's rental market is more consistently driven by a broad renter base tied to hospitality, healthcare, and tourism employment. The 0.50% rent-to-price ratio is not exceptional, but it is supported by a more stable renter profile.

The pending ratio comparison may be the most practically useful data point for buyers trying to read current conditions. Miami's 21.85% pending ratio means fewer than 1 in 4 listed homes has an accepted offer. Orlando's 34.33% means more than 1 in 3 does. If you are a buyer who wants to understand how competitive the process will be and how long you can take to make a decision, that gap is real.

Which Market Fits Which Buyer or Investor Profile

The 31-point gap in PropertyIQ Score reflects a real difference in current opportunity and risk. The two markets serve different buyer profiles.

Orlando is better suited for:

Buyers who want a more favorable income-to-price relationship. The $34,694 gap between income needed and median income is large, but it is nearly half of Miami's $59,417 gap. A dual-income household in Orlando has a realistic path to qualification that the equivalent Miami household does not.

Investors looking for demand-backed pricing. Orlando's demand score of 33.44 means a market where sellers are still moving inventory. Miami's 5.69 demand score means a market where sellers are waiting. The difference matters for investors underwriting exit timing.

Buyers who want to minimize overvaluation risk. At 43.8% overvalued, Orlando is stretched. But 43.8% overvaluation leaves meaningful room for a price recovery as rates eventually move. Miami at 81.5% overvalued faces a much longer correction path before affordability normalizes.

Investors who value 5-year return data. Orlando's 30.09% 5-year home value change slightly exceeds Miami's 26.26%, achieved at a lower entry price point.

Miami may be worth monitoring for:

Investors with long time horizons who believe Miami's international appeal and luxury rental market create a structural floor on prices. Miami is not a typical domestic market. International capital flows, Latin American wealth concentration, and the continued migration of finance and tech firms from the Northeast support demand in ways that do not show up cleanly in a domestic income-to-price analysis.

Buyers targeting the luxury segment where the overvaluation metric applies differently. The 81.5% overvaluation figure is calculated against metro-wide median income. At the upper end of the Miami market, buyers are not representative of median income. If you are purchasing in a price tier where your income significantly exceeds the metro median, the overvaluation signal carries less weight.

Investors who see the insurance and climate risk premium as a near-term pricing overhang that eventually normalizes. South Florida insurance costs have risen sharply since 2022. Some of the compression in Miami's score reflects the effect of elevated carrying costs on buyer affordability. If insurance markets stabilize, the score has room to improve.

Both markets require careful underwriting. Neither supports a casual or momentum-driven purchase at current prices.

The Florida Market Context

Both Miami and Orlando sit within a broader Florida market that has experienced significant post-pandemic turbulence. The Florida real estate markets 2026 overview covers the statewide picture. What stands out in the Miami-Orlando comparison is how differently the same macroeconomic forces have played out across two major metros in the same state.

Florida's population growth has been a consistent tailwind for both markets. Both metros continue to add residents faster than the national average. That growth has historically translated into housing demand that keeps prices from correcting to fully income-justified levels. It is part of why Miami's Zillow forecast is still +2.5% despite an 81.5% overvaluation figure.

But population growth does not override affordability math indefinitely. At some level of overvaluation, even in-migration markets reach a point where a sufficient share of potential buyers cannot qualify, and price growth stalls or reverses. Miami's score of 13 suggests that point has arrived. Orlando at 44 is closer to equilibrium but is not at it.

How to Track Both Markets on PropertyIQ

The PropertyIQ Score is updated monthly using data from Zillow, Realtor.com, Census, and economic sources across 400+ U.S. markets. Every metro, county, and ZIP code receives a score from 0 to 100 reflecting current valuation, supply-demand balance, rent-to-price ratio, income support, and near-term price direction.

For the Florida investor or buyer comparing Miami and Orlando, the score tells you where each market stands today. Score movements over the next 6 to 12 months will tell you whether the gap is closing or widening. A score improvement in Miami toward 20 or above would signal that the correction is gaining traction. A sustained hold or increase in Orlando's 44 would confirm that the demand recovery is not reversing.

You can pull live scores and full breakdowns for Miami (metro 33100) and Orlando (metro 36740), plus any other Florida markets, directly in PropertyIQ. The comparison tool shows the same data underlying this post updated monthly.

PropertyIQ scores as of February 28, 2026. Listing data as of February 1, 2026. Rent and forecast data as of December 2025. Economic and census data as noted. All data provided for informational purposes only and should not be the sole basis for investment decisions.