Springfield, MO Real Estate Market 2026: Score 29, and the Affordability Gap That Explains It

Springfield, Missouri scores 29 out of 100 on the PropertyIQ index as of February 2026.

That is an F-grade score. It has not been above 46 at any point in the past two years. It dropped 8 points in the three months ending February 2026, from 42 in January to 29 by month end. The Missouri average is 50. Springfield sits 21 points below it.

This is not a headline story. It is a structural one. Springfield does not score poorly because of a sudden shock. It has scored poorly consistently, across multiple market cycles, through interest rate changes, and through a period when many Midwest markets with similar price points were posting scores in the 60s, 70s, and 80s.

The data tells you why.

PropertyIQ scores Springfield an 29 out of 100 as of February 28, 2026. Scores are updated monthly using Zillow, Census, and Realtor.com data.

The Core Problem: Income Cannot Support Current Prices

The median listing price in Springfield is $338,325 as of February 1, 2026. The Zillow home value index is $263,554 as of January 31, 2026. There is a $74,771 gap between those two figures, reflecting a listing market that has drifted above what recent transaction prices have supported.

The income required to purchase at the Zillow home value is $89,925 per year. The Springfield metro median household income is $61,488 as of 2023 Census data.

That is a 46% gap. A typical Springfield household would need to earn 46% more than what the area actually earns to qualify for a mortgage at the median home value under standard underwriting assumptions.

The affordable home price, based on what local incomes can support, is $231,335. The current home value of $263,554 sits $32,219 above that threshold. The market is overvalued by 20.6% relative to what the local income base can support as of February 2026.

This is the structural problem. Springfield has nominal prices that look affordable by coastal standards but are expensive by Springfield income standards.

Two Years of Low Scores

The PropertyIQ Score for Springfield has ranged from 29 to 46 over the past two years. The score never broke above 46 during that stretch. Here is the six-month history:

• February 2026: 29
• January 2026: 42
• December 2025: 36
• November 2025: 36
• October 2025: 34
• September 2025: 36

That range tells you this is not a market temporarily weighed down by a single disruption. The demand-supply fundamentals have consistently produced below-average scores across all seasonal patterns.

The score began the year with a brief rise to 42 in January before falling to 29 in February. A 13-point single-month drop is significant. The most likely explanation is a deterioration in the pending ratio or a shift in new listings that changed the absorption picture.

What the Market Data Shows

The pending ratio in Springfield is 0.5507 as of February 1, 2026. For context, a pending ratio above 0.65 typically indicates a market where buyers are actively competing for available inventory. At 0.55, Springfield has moderate absorption: more than half of active listings have offers, but a meaningful share is sitting without interest.

Days on market average 67 as of February 1, 2026. That is longer than the Midwest average for markets with comparable price points, most of which are running DOM in the 50 to 65-day range.

Price reductions affect 13.38% of active listings. That figure is notable: in a market where prices are supposedly affordable by national standards, more than one in eight sellers is being forced to cut their ask. That is a demand signal, not a supply signal.

Inventory declined 5.48% year over year to 1,439 active listings. New listings fell 0.31% year over year. The market is not being flooded with supply. The issue is demand: there are not enough buyers at current prices to absorb even the modest inventory available.

The sale-to-list ratio is 98.63% as of November 2025. Sellers who do transact are getting close to their asking price. But with 13.38% of listings requiring price cuts, the sellers who succeed are generally those who priced realistically.

The Five-Year Picture

Springfield's five-year appreciation is 28.17% as of February 2026. On the surface, that looks healthy. A market that grew nearly 30% in five years looks like it is working.

But context matters. That 28% appreciation is almost entirely from the 2020-2022 period, when every market in America posted similar or larger gains. What it means for 2026 is that prices that were affordable at 2019 income levels are no longer affordable at 2026 income levels, because incomes did not grow at the same pace as prices.

The Zillow 12-month forecast is 3.4% additional appreciation as of December 2025. That is a positive price forecast. But 3.4% growth on a home already 20.6% above what local incomes support moves the affordability math in the wrong direction.

Home value year-over-year as of February 2026 is up 4.92% on the Realtor.com metric. Prices are not falling. They are continuing to grow at a pace that outstrips local income growth.

The Rental Market

The Zillow rent index for Springfield is $1,252 per month as of December 2025. The income required to comfortably afford that rent level is $50,063 per year, which is actually within reach of the Springfield median income of $61,488. Renting is affordable in Springfield. Owning is not.

That distinction helps explain the market dynamic: a rental market that functions relatively well, supporting a homeownership rate of 63.04%, while an owner-occupied market that struggles to produce buyers who can qualify at current prices.

The 58 new construction sales in November 2025 represent a modest pace of new home absorption. Springfield's new construction market reflects the same constraints: builders who price above what local incomes support see slow absorption.

How Springfield Compares

Kansas City, MO and St. Louis, MO are the other major Missouri markets in the PropertyIQ dataset. Both consistently score above Springfield, reflecting larger, more diversified employment bases and income distributions that better support current home prices.

Springfield's population of 481,671 makes it a mid-size metro by Midwest standards, anchored by Missouri State University, Ozarks Technical Community College, and a healthcare sector concentrated around CoxHealth and Mercy Hospital. Those institutions provide employment stability but not the income levels that support a $338,000 median listing market.

The Years-to-Save Problem

The years-to-save figure for Springfield is 7.4 years for a typical household to accumulate a 20% down payment. That figure assumes consistent savings at national average rates. For a household earning the Springfield median of $61,488, saving 20% of $263,554 ($52,711) while covering living expenses realistically takes longer than the national model suggests.

For first-time buyers in Springfield, the path to homeownership is genuinely difficult despite the absolute price level being below the national median. Prices that look low from a coastal perspective are still high relative to what Springfield earns.

What a Score of 29 Means Practically

A score of 29 means Springfield's current supply-demand balance, income fundamentals, and pricing dynamics are in the bottom tier of the PropertyIQ dataset. It does not mean prices are about to crash. Home values have risen 4.92% year over year. The sale-to-list ratio is 98.63%. Transactions are happening.

What it means is that the market is functioning below its structural capacity. Demand is weaker than supply, prices are above what local incomes support, and the trend is moving in the wrong direction following the score's 8-point drop in the most recent month.

For investors evaluating Springfield against other Midwest markets, the data points clearly toward better-scoring alternatives at similar or only modestly higher absolute price points. Akron, OH scores 88 with a median Zillow value under $175,000. Toledo, OH scores 86 at $200,000. Lincoln, NE scores 98 at $277,000. Each provides a stronger income-to-price relationship and a higher PropertyIQ Score than Springfield at comparable or lower price points.

Springfield has attributes that support a long-term hold: stable healthcare and education anchors, growing population, and a Zillow forecast that shows continued price appreciation. But the current score reflects a market where the income base has not caught up to prices, and where that gap has been persistent for two years.

PropertyIQ score as of February 28, 2026. Listing and inventory data as of February 1, 2026. Zillow home value data as of January 31, 2026. Sale-to-list data as of November 2025. Forecast data as of December 2025. Rent data as of December 2025. Census data as of 2023. Economic data as of November 2025. All data for informational purposes only.