Tampa Real Estate Market 2026: Score 47, Up 17 Points From Its Low

Tampa was one of the most overheated real estate markets in the country in 2021 and 2022. Values surged, investors piled in, and inventory collapsed. What followed was a correction that pushed the PropertyIQ Score to a low of 30 in August 2025.

PropertyIQ now scores Tampa a 47 out of 100 as of February 28, 2026. That is still below average -- 50 represents the national midpoint -- but it represents 17 points of recovery from the bottom. The trend line has reversed.

Here is the full picture.

Where Tampa Stands Right Now

The median listing price in Tampa is $399,900 as of February 2026. Home values have risen just 0.23% year over year, essentially flat. The Zillow median home value is approximately $354,579 as of January 2026. The market is 41.1% overvalued relative to local income fundamentals, with median household income at $71,254 (2023 Census).

Homes are averaging 80 days on market as of February 2026. There are 17,921 homes for sale -- the largest inventory of any Florida metro covered by PropertyIQ. For comparison, Orlando has 12,764.

The Price Cut Rate Is Elevated

24.85% of Tampa listings have taken at least one price cut as of February 2026. Nearly one in four sellers has had to reduce their asking price to attract a buyer. The sale-to-list ratio is 97.5% as of November 2025, meaning buyers are consistently negotiating below the list price.

This is a buyer-favorable market by current data.

New Listings Are Declining

The more telling data point is new listings. New Tampa listings are down 11.2% year over year as of February 2026. Fewer sellers are entering the market, which suggests the supply flood that began in 2023 is beginning to recede.

If new listings continue declining while pending activity holds steady, the supply-demand imbalance that drove the score to 30 will narrow over time. The score trend from 30 in August 2025 to 47 in February 2026 reflects that process in progress.

The Recovery Trajectory (Score History)

| Month | Score | |-------|-------| | August 2025 | 30 (low) | | September 2025 | 32 | | October 2025 | 34 | | November 2025 | 34 | | December 2025 | 35 | | January 2026 | 43 | | February 2026 | 47 |

The acceleration from 35 to 47 between December 2025 and February 2026 represents the fastest scoring gain in the recent recovery window.

What the 5-Year Picture Shows

Tampa home values are up 33.4% over the five-year period ending February 2026. The city went through a significant run-up and is now digesting that appreciation against current income levels.

Zillow forecasts near-term home price appreciation of 1.5% as of December 2025. That is a stabilization signal, not a momentum signal.

How Tampa Compares to Orlando and Jacksonville

Orlando scores 44 out of 100 as of February 2026. Jacksonville scores 31. All three Florida markets are in recovery mode with varying degrees of inventory pressure and price cut activity.

Tampa's score is the highest of the three, and its new-listings decline is the most pronounced -- both factors point toward a faster normalization relative to the other two.

PropertyIQ score as of February 28, 2026. Listing and inventory data as of February 1, 2026. Zillow home value data as of January 31, 2026. Forecast data as of December 2025. Census data as of 2023. All data for informational purposes only.