Jacksonville Real Estate Market 2026: Score of 31, But Three Recovery Signals Worth Watching

A score of 31 out of 100 is a warning sign. It reflects a market where supply and demand are out of balance in ways that pressure prices and discourage buyers.

But scores are snapshots. Direction matters too.

PropertyIQ scores Jacksonville, FL a 31 out of 100 as of February 28, 2026. That score puts Jacksonville near the bottom quartile of tracked markets. What the score does not fully capture is the directional shift underway: inventory is shrinking, supply is tightening, and transaction volume is accelerating.

Here is what the data shows.

Inventory Is Actually Declining

For-sale inventory in Jacksonville is down 11.95% year over year as of February 2026. There are 7,478 active listings — a large number in absolute terms, but the trend is moving in the right direction for sellers and appreciation prospects.

New listings are also declining. New listings in Jacksonville fell 10.34% year over year as of February 2026. Fewer sellers are listing, which should accelerate the inventory drawdown over time.

Home Sales Are Up Sharply

Home sales in Jacksonville increased 12.13% year over year as of February 2026 — one of the strongest transaction growth figures among the markets in this batch. Demand is absorbing inventory faster than new supply is entering.

Month-over-month, listing prices rose 1.87% as of February 2026. That is a small number, but it contrasts with the year-over-year decline of 1.57% and suggests the correction may be finding its floor.

The Overvaluation Problem Has Not Resolved

The median listing price in Jacksonville is $382,000 as of February 2026. Jacksonville remains approximately 27.5% above fundamental value. The estimated income needed to buy at current prices is approximately $101,534. The median household income in Jacksonville is $77,013 (2023 Census) — a gap that has not yet closed.

21.1% of listings have seen price cuts as of February 2026, which is among the highest in this batch. Sellers are still adjusting expectations downward.

Unemployment Is the Key Risk

Jacksonville's unemployment rate is 4.6% as of December 2025 — the highest of any market in this batch, and above the national average. Sustained job market weakness would pressure both demand and household income, slowing the recovery signal.

The Rent Picture

Average rent in Jacksonville is approximately $1,667 per month as of December 2025 (Zillow). With median home values near $346,141 (Zillow, January 2026), the monthly rent-to-price ratio is approximately 0.48%. That is below what most income investors target but above the compressed ratios in markets like Charlotte or Boise.

What the Forecast Shows

Zillow forecasts Jacksonville home values to grow 1.5% near-term as of December 2025. Five-year appreciation has been 21.85%. The market has been among the stronger long-term performers in Florida despite the current score.

How to Interpret a 31 Score With Positive Trends

The score reflects current conditions: elevated overvaluation, high price cut rates, and soft demand scores (37.1 out of 100). The recovery signals — declining inventory, rising transaction volume, and flattening month-over-month prices — are real but not yet dominant enough to move the score substantially.

Jacksonville at a 31 is a market that has likely passed the worst of its correction without yet earning the score uptick to prove it. For buyers with a 3–5 year horizon and risk tolerance for continued near-term softness, the directional data is more favorable than the headline score suggests.

PropertyIQ score as of February 28, 2026. Listing and inventory data as of February 1, 2026. Forecast data as of December 2025. All data for informational purposes only.