Waco, Texas Real Estate Market 2026: Score 36, 123 Days on Market, +40% Sales Volume

Waco, Texas scores 36 out of 100 on the PropertyIQ index as of February 2026.

The score of 36 is below the 50-point national median, but the direction of change is notable: Waco has gained 15 points in the past three months, rising from 21 in November 2025 to 36 in February 2026. That rate of improvement is faster than the majority of markets in the PropertyIQ dataset.

The underlying data is a study in contradictions. Days on market is 123 as of February 2026, which is high by any standard. Inventory is up 29.82% year over year. Home values are down 3.35% year over year. And yet home sales volume has increased 40.2% year over year. Buyers are transacting at higher rates despite slow conditions. That combination is what the PropertyIQ score of 36 is attempting to capture.

PropertyIQ scores Waco a 36 out of 100 as of February 28, 2026. Scores are updated monthly using Zillow, Census, Realtor.com, and economic data.

The Waco Market in Numbers: February 2026

All data as of February 1, 2026 unless otherwise noted.

• PropertyIQ Score: 36 (up 15 points in 3 months)
• Zillow home value: $248,480 (January 31, 2026)
• Median listing price: $309,225
• Home value year over year: down 3.35%
• Inventory: 1,474 homes (+29.82% year over year)
• Days on market: 123
• New listings: 342 (down 5.52% year over year)
• Pending listings: 422
• Price-cut rate: 17.28%
• Pending ratio: 0.29
• Home sales year over year: +40.2%
• Price per square foot: $178
• Overvalued: 10.1%
• Unemployment: 4.1% (November 2025)
• Population: 299,217 (2023 Census)
• Median household income: $63,880 (2023 Census)
• Income needed to purchase: $82,191
• 5-year home appreciation: 31.59%
• Zillow rent index: $1,418/month (December 2025)

Waco Texas Housing Market: The 123-Day DOM Story

A 123-day average days on market is a slow market. Homes are sitting.

The Waco context: the market is not primarily a liquid, high-velocity market in the way that Austin or Dallas operate. Waco is a mid-sized city of approximately 299,000 people in the McLennan County metro area. It sits on Interstate 35, roughly 90 miles north of Austin and 90 miles south of Dallas. The market benefits from proximity to both major metros but does not operate at their velocity.

The 29.82% inventory increase year over year means there are substantially more homes available than buyers are absorbing at the current pace. At 1,474 homes on the market with 123 average days before sale, the absorption rate is slow.

The price-cut rate of 17.28% provides additional evidence. More than one in six active listings has seen a price reduction, indicating that initial asking prices are above where buyers are transacting.

These conditions explain the low score. The score of 36, while below average, represents an improvement from the deeper distress seen in late 2024 when the Waco score was in the 11 to 13 range.

The Waco Contradiction: Volume Up 40%, Prices Down

The most unusual data point in the Waco report is the home sales volume figure. Sales are up 40.2% year over year as of February 2026.

In a market with 123-day DOM, 30% more inventory, and prices down 3.35%, a 40% jump in transaction volume is unexpected. It is the primary driver of the score improvement from 21 to 36 over three months.

The explanation is likely price adjustment. When prices fall to meet buyer capacity, volume eventually recovers. The Zillow home value of $248,480 in January 2026 represents a pullback from the post-pandemic peak of approximately $253,000 in July 2022. The adjustment has been modest in absolute terms but has apparently been enough to draw buyers back into the market at higher rates.

This is the typical early phase of a market correction and recovery cycle. Prices fall. Volume eventually responds. The question is whether the volume recovery is sustainable or whether it reflects pent-up demand that will exhaust itself and leave the market back at slow velocity.

The score of 36 and rising is the PropertyIQ interpretation of where that cycle currently sits.

Waco TX Housing Market: Affordability and Income Data

The Waco metro median household income is $63,880 as of 2023 Census data. The income required to purchase the typical home without being cost-burdened is $82,191 as of February 2026.

The gap between median income ($63,880) and income needed to buy ($82,191) represents a 28.7% affordability shortfall. Waco buyers at the median income need to earn approximately $18,000 more per year to purchase without being cost-burdened. That is a meaningful but not extreme affordability gap compared to many major markets.

The calculated affordable home price based on the Waco median income is $240,335. The Zillow home value of $248,480 is close to that level, which means Waco is approaching price alignment with local incomes. The 10.1% overvaluation reading confirms this: Waco is only modestly overvalued relative to local income fundamentals, which is a better position than many Texas and Sun Belt markets.

Dallas-Fort Worth scores 31 on the PropertyIQ index as of February 2026, below Waco's 36. Houston scores 32. Both of the major Texas metros that dwarf Waco in size are scoring lower. This reflects the overvaluation that hit large Texas metros harder during the 2020 through 2022 boom.

Waco and the Fixer Upper Effect

Waco became nationally known in large part through the HGTV television series Fixer Upper, which ran from 2013 to 2018 and starred Chip and Joanna Gaines, who are based in Waco. The show drove significant tourism and renewed interest in Waco's historic neighborhoods and commercial areas.

The Gaines's retail and entertainment complex on the Brazos riverfront, along with the associated media attention, contributed to out-of-state buyer interest in Waco during the pandemic era. That lifestyle-driven demand pushed prices above what the local income base historically supported.

The 31.59% five-year appreciation recorded through early 2026 reflects that period. Homes that appreciated 31% in five years on a $250,000 price base are now sitting in a market where local incomes have not kept pace.

The result is the market profile described above: 123-day DOM, 17% price cuts, inventory building. The Fixer Upper premium is being digested.

Waco Texas Real Estate: Investment Analysis

The Zillow rent index for Waco is $1,418 per month as of December 2025. At a Zillow home value of $248,480, the gross rent multiplier is approximately 14.6.

A GRM of 14.6 is in the acceptable range for single-family residential investment in a secondary Texas market. It is not a strong yield position, but it is better than major metro GRMs in the 20 to 25 range. An investor who purchases at current values and rents at the current rate is operating with a more favorable return structure than at comparable markets in Austin or Dallas.

The Zillow one-year price forecast for Waco is plus 1.9% as of December 2025. That is a modest positive projection, suggesting Zillow's model does not anticipate further meaningful price declines.

New construction sales in Waco were 35 units per month as of November 2025. For a metro of 299,000, that is a meaningful new supply addition that will continue to put modest pressure on resale prices.

Waco vs. Other Texas Markets

The Texas market is broadly scoring in the 19 to 36 range as of February 2026.

Fort Worth / Tarrant County scores 58, well above the state average, driven by its distinct supply and demand dynamics relative to the larger DFW metro. San Antonio scores around 50. El Paso scores 46. Waco at 36 sits below the midpoint of the Texas range but well above the bottom tier markets.

Waco Real Estate 2026: Summary

Waco is a market in recovery. A score of 36 means current conditions are below average, but the 15-point gain in three months signals that the recovery is real. The volume surge of 40.2% year over year is the most important data point in the Waco report: buyers have returned to the market at meaningful rates despite slow DOM and price cuts.

The affordability gap is narrowing as prices have softened. At 10.1% overvaluation, Waco is approaching income alignment. Whether the recovery sustains will depend on whether the volume momentum continues and whether new construction supply remains absorbed.

The PropertyIQ Score is updated monthly. The current trend is positive but the score has not yet crossed the 50-point threshold that represents average composite conditions.

PropertyIQ score as of February 28, 2026. Listing and inventory data as of February 1, 2026. Zillow home value data as of January 31, 2026. Sale-to-list data as of November 30, 2025. Forecast data as of December 2025. Census data as of 2023. Economic data as of November 2025. All data for informational purposes only.