Waco, TX Housing Market
AI-powered market intelligence for the Waco, TX metro area.
PropertyIQ Scores
Waco, TX Market Analysis
Market Overview
The Waco real estate market currently registers a weak signal, with a PropertyIQ Score of just 19 out of 100. This low composite score is heavily influenced by several key performance drivers: home value momentum of 3.49% over the past twelve months and only 0.52% over the most recent three months, a median of 65 days on market, and a notable 21.6% share of active listings that have undergone a price cut. These indicators collectively suggest a market where demand is tepid and sellers are making concessions to close deals. The environment is not defined by sharp declines, but rather by a softness that gives buyers the upper hand in negotiations and slows the pace of transactions compared to more dynamic markets.
When measured against state benchmarks, Waco’s position becomes clearer. The median home value of $258,697 sits well below the Texas statewide median of $302,999, yet the median household income of $63,880 also trails the state average of $76,292. This means that while the sticker price of homes is lower, the purchasing power of local residents is correspondingly diminished, muting the affordability advantage. The unemployment rate, at 4.1%, is slightly healthier than the state’s 4.3%, pointing to a relatively stable job market. Strikingly, the rent index of $1,430 exceeds the state average of $1,339, signaling that rental demand is more robust locally than across Texas as a whole.
Taken together, the data paints a picture of a market stuck in low gear. Home values have moved sideways, with a year-over-year change of -$6—essentially flat. The combination of a low PropertyIQ Score, elevated price reductions, and a moderate days-on-market figure places Waco in a position of relative weakness, particularly when compared to broader state trends. For anyone watching this market, the story is one of caution, where the forces supporting growth are being offset by local income constraints and a measured pace of activity.
Key Trends
Several interconnected trends emerge from the numbers. First, home price dynamics reveal a stagnating environment. The 12-month home value momentum of 3.49% might hint at slow growth, but the quarter-over-quarter pace of just 0.52% shows that even that modest forward movement has been fading. When paired with a year-over-year dollar change of -$6 and the reality that more than one in five listings has taken a price cut, it is evident that sellers are struggling to push values higher. A median days-on-market of 65 further underscores that homes are not moving quickly, giving buyers time to shop around and negotiate.
A second trend is the relative strength of the rental market. Waco’s rent index of $1,430 outstrips the state average of $1,339, a divergence that persists even though local home values are lower. This suggests a segment of the population is either unable or unwilling to buy, funneling demand into rentals. With a low unemployment rate of 4.1%, the area’s employment base appears capable of supporting these rent levels, making the rental sector a bright spot in an otherwise sluggish housing landscape.
Affordability dynamics form a third key trend. The gap between Waco’s median home value and its median household income creates a conflicting picture. On one hand, a home price nearly $45,000 below the state median appears inviting; on the other hand, residents’ incomes are over $12,000 below the state benchmark. This narrow pathway to homeownership helps explain the high share of listings with price cuts and the strong rental activity. Finally, with 1,620 homes for sale and no available population growth data, the supply side appears to be weighing on the market. Without clarity on population trends, the elevated inventory level, sluggish absorption, and frequency of price reductions suggest that supply is gently outpacing demand for the time being.
Who Is This Market For
Given the low PropertyIQ Score and the detailed metrics behind it, Waco is not a market for those chasing rapid price appreciation. Instead, it presents clear opportunities for buy-and-hold investors who prioritize cash flow. The rent index standing above the state average, combined with a median home value that is relatively modest, can translate into attractive rental yields for those who acquire properties at the right price. The 21.6% share of listings with price cuts is a tangible signal that investors can negotiate below asking prices, improving their day-one returns. With a stable employment base reflected in the 4.1% unemployment rate, rental demand appears to have a solid foundation.
First-time homebuyers with secure local jobs may also find a foothold here, particularly if they can take advantage of seller concessions. The lower median home value, compared to the state, offers an entry point below Texas’s broader price ceiling, though the local income levels will limit how far some buyers can stretch. Move-up buyers, however, may see less incentive to act in a market where home value momentum is barely positive and the year-over-year change is essentially zero. Fix-and-flip investors, who rely on quick turnover and rising prices, would find the 65-day median days-on-market and slow quarterly momentum challenging. The absence of population growth data injects a note of caution for any strategy counting on a near-term demand surge; without net in-migration, absorption of the 1,620 homes on the market will remain gradual.
Outlook
Looking ahead, the data suggests Waco’s housing market will likely remain in a holding pattern. The deceleration in home value momentum—from 3.49% annually to just 0.52% over the last three months—coupled with a year-over-year dollar decline, points to persistent price softness. The elevated share of price cuts and a 65-day median days-on-market indicate that sellers will continue to face headwinds in the near term. On the positive side, the unemployment rate of 4.1% and a rent index that handily beats the state average could sustain underlying housing demand, especially from renters and yield-focused investors. Without population growth data, it is impossible to count on a meaningful demand tailwind. Consequently, the most grounded expectation is for flat to very modest home price movement, while the rental side of the market may well continue to outperform state norms.
AI-generated analysis based on current market data. Last updated July 18, 2026.
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Waco, TX market data
Waco, TX Housing Market Overview
Waco, TX's median home value is $259K, up 3.5% over the past year. Homes here sell in a median 65 days. Its PropertyIQ Score of 19 sits below the state average of 50, marking a market positioned to lag its state over the next three years.
The Waco, TX metropolitan area represents a distinct segment of TX's housing landscape. The PropertyIQ Score combines price momentum — how Zillow home values have trended over the past 3 and 12 months — with market-flow signals from Realtor.com that track how fast homes sell and how often sellers cut prices. The result is a single measure of how this market is positioned to outperform or lag its state over the next three years.
South Central housing markets are propelled by energy sector economics, corporate relocations, and rapid population growth. Texas metros in particular have seen explosive expansion, though affordability pressures are emerging in the fastest-growing areas. Within the South Central, Waco, TX's PropertyIQ Score of 19 runs below the South Central norm.
Texas continues to be one of America's top relocation destinations, with no state income tax and a business-friendly regulatory environment driving corporate headquarters relocations and population growth.
Each month, PropertyIQ updates its score for Waco, TX using four inputs: Zillow ZHVI twelve-month and three-month momentum, Realtor.com median days on market, and the Realtor.com share of listings with price cuts. These four signals are combined into a single 1 to 99 score computed across all metro markets and calibrated so 50 represents the state average, making it a direct read of how this market is positioned to perform relative to its state.
Use PropertyIQ's interactive analytics to compare Waco, TX against any other US metro on its PropertyIQ Score and underlying metrics. Generate a free AI market report, explore historical trends on the graphs page, or see how this market ranks on the scores dashboard.
Counties in the Waco, TX metro area
ZIP codes in the Waco, TX metro area
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Market data through June 2026. Sourced from Zillow, Realtor.com, Redfin, U.S. Census Bureau, FRED, BLS, and BEA. Per-statistic source and date shown above.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Waco, TX a good place to buy real estate in 2026?
PropertyIQ doesn't label markets simply good or bad. Instead, the PropertyIQ Score measures a market's demand momentum against its own state, where 50 marks the state average. Waco, TX currently scores 19, a very weak-momentum reading that leaves it positioned to lag its state over the next three years. For buyers, cooling demand usually brings more inventory, longer sale times, and real leverage to negotiate on price. Backing that up, the median home value here is $259K, up 3.5% over the past year. So whether Waco, TX is right for you comes down to your goals: a rising-momentum market can favor long-term appreciation but offers less room to negotiate, while a cooling one hands buyers more leverage. Treat the score as a timing signal to weigh alongside your budget, holding period, and plans for the property, not a verdict on the market's quality.
What is the PropertyIQ Score for Waco, TX?
Waco, TX's PropertyIQ Score is 19, indicating very weak momentum on a 1-to-99 scale. The score distills four transparent inputs into a single number: Zillow home-value momentum over the past 12 months, Zillow home-value momentum over the past 3 months, the median days homes spend on the market from Realtor.com, and the share of listings with a price cut, also from Realtor.com. Rising values and faster sales push the score up, while slow sales and frequent price cuts pull it down. The scale is calibrated so 50 equals the state average, meaning a score above 50 predicts the market will outperform its state over the next three years and a score below 50 predicts underperformance. PropertyIQ computes the score across every US market nationally, then recenters it against each state, so 19 places Waco, TX below its state benchmark.
Are home prices in Waco, TX rising or falling?
Home prices in Waco, TX are rising. Over the past year, the median home value increased 3.5%, reaching $259K. Over the latest three months, values moved up 0.5%, a sign near-term demand remains firm. PropertyIQ derives these figures from Zillow's home-value index, which tracks the typical value across the market rather than only the homes that happened to sell, giving a steadier read than a raw median sale price. Both the 12-month and 3-month momentum readings feed directly into the PropertyIQ Score, so this price trend is one of the core signals behind Waco, TX's current score. Keep in mind that appreciation can vary widely by neighborhood and price tier across the metro area, so treat these figures as the market-wide baseline rather than a guarantee for any single property.
How quickly do homes sell in Waco, TX?
In Waco, TX, homes sell in a median of 65 days from listing to pending sale, based on Realtor.com market data. Median days on market is one of the clearest real-time reads on local demand: when homes move quickly, buyers are competing and sellers hold the advantage, while lengthening timelines signal cooling interest and more room to negotiate. Alongside sale speed, about 22% of active listings here have taken at least one price cut — a complementary demand gauge, since a rising share of reductions often precedes slower sales and softer prices. Both median days on market and the price-cut share feed directly into the PropertyIQ Score, where faster sales and fewer cuts push the score higher. As a general guide, medians under about 30 days indicate a brisk, competitive market, while medians well beyond 60 days point to buyers regaining leverage. Actual time on market still varies by price band, property type, and season, so treat the median as a market-wide baseline.
How current is this metro area data?
This Waco, TX market data is refreshed on a monthly cycle, with the latest figures current through June 2026. PropertyIQ ingests fresh data every month from a range of authoritative sources: home values and rents from Zillow, days on market and price-cut activity from Realtor.com, additional housing signals from Redfin, demographic and housing-stock data from the U.S. Census Bureau, mortgage and macroeconomic series from FRED, and employment figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The PropertyIQ Score itself is recomputed every month once the new source data lands, so the score and its four underlying inputs always reflect the most recent complete reporting period rather than a static snapshot. Because official housing data is typically released with a short lag, the current-through date usually trails the present by a few weeks, which is normal across the industry and not a sign the data is out of date.