Youngstown, Ohio Real Estate Market 2026: Score 55, Income Covers the Mortgage, Score Is Falling

Youngstown, Ohio scores 55 out of 100 on the PropertyIQ index as of February 2026.

That number dropped from 69 in January 2026. One month, a 14-point decline. For a market where the income required to buy is below the local median household income and where home values have appreciated 42% over five years, a score of 55 and a two-month decline from 69 deserve a detailed look.

PropertyIQ scores Youngstown a 55 out of 100 as of February 28, 2026. Scores are updated monthly using Zillow, Census, and Realtor.com data.

The Affordability Picture

The median listing price in Youngstown is $189,250 as of February 1, 2026. The Zillow home value for the metro is $165,842 as of January 31, 2026.

The income required to buy at the median price is $50,302 per year. The Youngstown metro median household income is $55,357 as of 2023 Census data.

That is a gap of $5,055 in the buyer's favor. The average household in Youngstown already earns more than what is needed to qualify for a mortgage at the median price. That combination, income above purchase threshold, is increasingly rare in 2026.

The overvaluation reading is -16.1% as of February 2026. Youngstown home prices sit 16.1% below what local income fundamentals would support. The Zillow-calculated affordable home price for the metro is $208,269. At $165,842, homes are trading at a meaningful discount to that benchmark.

Five-Year Appreciation and the Current Forecast

Home values in Youngstown have increased 42.08% over the past five years as of February 2026. That figure reflects a market that benefited from the post-2020 investor attention toward affordable Midwest cities, where low entry prices and above-average rent yields attracted capital that had previously avoided the region.

The Zillow one-year appreciation forecast is 4.5% as of December 2025. That is above the national median forecast, reflecting that the algorithmic model sees continued positive price momentum at Youngstown's price point.

Prices are up 8.14% year over year as of February 2026, the strongest YOY appreciation figure of the four markets analyzed in this batch. On a pure price trend basis, Youngstown is moving in the right direction.

What the Score Drop Reflects

The February score of 55 came after a January score of 69. That is a material month-over-month swing in a market with 428,430 residents.

The supply score is 43.8 out of 100. The demand score is 84.9 out of 100. Demand is strong. The score drop is not a demand problem.

The issue is on the supply side. Total inventory is 720 homes, up 6.67% year over year as of February 2026. New listings dropped 12.57% year over year, meaning fewer new homes entered the market. But days on market averaged 69 days. When existing inventory accumulates despite fewer new entries, it means homes are sitting on the market longer before going under contract.

The pending ratio is 0.63 as of February 2026. For every 100 homes listed, 63 are under contract. That is a moderate absorption rate, not a strong one. The demand score of 84.9 measures buyer activity relative to inventory. Strong buyer interest does not automatically translate to fast absorption if pricing is misaligned or if listings need work.

Price cuts affect 15.72% of active listings. The sale-to-list ratio is 97.85% as of November 2025, meaning sellers are accepting slightly below their ask on average. Neither metric suggests a market in distress, but both suggest buyers have some negotiating leverage.

Historical Score Context

Youngstown has scored in the 60-71 range for most of the past 18 months. The February 2026 drop to 55 is notable because it is an outlier in the market's own history, not just relative to other markets. The December 2024 score was 74. The January 2026 score was 69. The February 2026 score is 55.

Small metro markets can show score volatility because the underlying data has fewer transactions. A few dozen homes sitting longer than expected can shift the supply health score meaningfully. Whether the February reading represents a temporary seasonal effect or the start of a downward trend in demand relative to supply becomes clearer over the next two to three monthly readings.

The Zillow one-year forecast of 4.5% appreciation suggests the broader algorithm does not see the score drop as a sign of price deterioration. The two signals, a score decline and a positive price forecast, are not contradictory. The score measures current supply-demand balance, not future prices.

The Rent and Cash Flow Picture

The Zillow rent index for Youngstown is $1,031 per month as of December 2025. At a home value of $165,842, that produces a price-to-rent ratio of 13.4.

A PTR in the low-to-mid teens is generally considered investor-neutral: cash flow depends heavily on down payment size, financing rate, and operating expenses. Youngstown is not in the sub-10 PTR range where cash flow is typically robust, but it is well below the 20-plus levels where cash flow is structurally difficult.

The income-to-rent calculation shows that a household earning $41,236 per year can afford market rent in Youngstown without exceeding a 30% cost burden. That is below the metro median income, suggesting the rental market here serves a broad segment of residents rather than a high-income subset.

How Youngstown Compares to Other Ohio Markets

Ohio has several high-scoring markets in the PropertyIQ dataset. Toledo, Ohio scores 86 and is similarly affordable, with income covering the purchase threshold. Cleveland, Ohio has historically run tight on supply. Cincinnati, Ohio and Columbus, Ohio are the larger metros. Youngstown at 55 represents the lower end of the Ohio market range covered in the PropertyIQ dataset.

The score difference between Youngstown and Toledo reflects the supply health divergence. Toledo's higher score comes from a tighter ratio of pending contracts to available inventory. Youngstown's 55 reflects more available inventory absorbing at a slower rate, despite comparable affordability fundamentals.

The Economic Context

The Youngstown metro unemployment rate is 4.6% as of November 2025. That is above the national average and consistent with an economy still managing the transition from heavy manufacturing. The homeownership rate is 70.85%, above the national average, which makes sense in a low-price market where ownership is financially accessible for a larger share of the population.

The median age is 43.6 years, one of the older demographics in the PropertyIQ metro dataset. Older median-age markets typically show lower household formation rates, which can dampen organic demand growth over time.

What This Market Is Not

A score of 55 combined with strong affordability, positive appreciation, and a high demand score does not mean Youngstown is a market to avoid. It means the current supply absorption is weaker than it was one month ago, and that the signal warrants attention over the next two to three readings.

Markets scoring consistently in the 60-75 range with Youngstown's affordability profile and five-year appreciation track record tend to attract steady investor interest rather than speculative attention. A score drop to 55 in one month, driven by supply health and not demand, is more of a yellow flag than a red one. The next monthly update will be more informative than the current reading in isolation.

PropertyIQ score as of February 28, 2026. Listing and inventory data as of February 1, 2026. Zillow home value data as of January 31, 2026. Sale-to-list data as of November 30, 2025. Forecast data as of December 2025. Census data as of 2023. Economic data as of November 2025. All data for informational purposes only.