Memphis, TN Housing Market Forecast 2026

Will Memphis, TN Home Prices Crash in 2026?

The current momentum data for Memphis does not signal a crash. The 12-month home value momentum is positive at 1.99 percent, meaning home values have not been falling on a trailing 12-month basis. The 3-month home value momentum is negative at -0.90 percent, indicating recent softening. The year-over-year change in median home value is -$10, which is effectively flat rather than a steep decline. Median days on market at 68 days and a price cut share of 25.3 percent point to easing demand, but they do not show widespread distress. The PropertyIQ Score of 13 out of 100, with 50 equal to the state average, indicates demand momentum is running well below the state average, but that is a relative momentum reading, not a forecast of a crash. The data does not show a market in freefall. It shows one that is losing momentum and facing softer conditions.

Momentum Signals

The PropertyIQ Score of 13 out of 100 is a demand-momentum signal. Since 50 equals the state average, Memphis is far below the state's typical momentum. The top score drivers explain this low reading. The 12-month home value momentum is positive at 1.99 percent, which indicates that over the past year home values have firmed modestly. However, the 3-month home value momentum is negative at -0.90 percent, which signals that the most recent direction has turned lower. Together these show longer-term steadiness giving way to short-term easing.

Median days on market of 68 days suggests that homes are taking more than two months to sell. That pace is consistent with cooling demand rather than rapid turnover. The share of listings with a price cut at 25.3 percent means roughly one in four listings has reduced its asking price. This indicates that sellers are adjusting to softer buyer interest. The year-over-year home value change of -$10 is essentially flat, reinforcing that price momentum is easing rather than collapsing. Inventory of 5,451 homes for sale provides context, but no local or state benchmark is provided for this metric, so it cannot be read as high or low relative to the market's own history. The unemployment rate of 4.7 percent is above the state average and may be contributing to the cooling momentum by limiting buyer urgency. Population growth is not available, so that part of the demand picture is missing.

How Memphis, TN Compares

Memphis sits above the state average on several key benchmarks. The median home value in Memphis is $244,737, compared with the state average of $227,264, so Memphis home values are higher than the state typical level. The rent index in Memphis is $1,400, well above the state average of $947, meaning rents are considerably higher than the state benchmark. The unemployment rate in Memphis is 4.7 percent, above the state average of 4.0 percent, indicating a softer labor market than the state overall. Median household income in Memphis is $66,401, above the state average of $60,773, so incomes are higher than the state benchmark. Population growth is listed as N/A, so no comparison can be made. No national benchmarks are provided, so a national comparison cannot be completed. Also, no state benchmarks are provided for days on market, homes for sale, price cuts, or the year-over-year home value change, so those metrics can only be interpreted on their own.

The Bottom Line for 2026

The momentum outlook for Memphis in 2026 is one of cooling and easing demand. The PropertyIQ Score of 13 out of 100, with 50 as the state average, indicates that Memphis is trailing the state's demand momentum by a wide margin. The confidence grade for this signal is A, meaning there is a high degree of confidence in the momentum reading. The 12-month price momentum is still slightly positive, but the 3-month price momentum has turned negative, and seller behavior in the form of a 25.3 percent price cut share and 68 median days on market points to a slower market. The year-over-year median home value change of -$10 is effectively flat. Altogether, the data supports an outlook of continued softening rather than accelerating price pressure. This is not a crash call, and it is not a boom call. It is a cooling momentum outlook with some missing inputs, including population growth and national benchmarks. Absent those missing pieces, the available momentum data suggests that Memphis is likely to continue easing rather than firming as 2026 begins.