Modesto, CA Housing Market
AI-powered market intelligence for the Modesto, CA metro area.
PropertyIQ Scores
Modesto, CA Market Analysis
Market Overview
Modesto’s PropertyIQ score of 43 out of 100 places the city in a moderate-to-soft housing market position relative to broader California conditions. The top drivers behind this score are home value momentum of 0.71% over 12 months, a 3-month home value momentum of -1.03%, median days on market of 45 days, and a price-cut share of 18.7%. These metrics point to flat or slightly cooling price conditions rather than strong appreciation.
Compared with state averages, Modesto offers a significantly lower median home value: $463,691 versus $764,158. That gap is roughly $300,000. But local economic benchmarks are weaker: median household income is $79,661 versus $96,334 statewide, and unemployment is 6.7% versus 5.1%. The rent index is $2,068, above the state average of $1,956, meaning rents are comparatively high even though home prices are lower.
The supply picture adds to the softness. There are 787 homes for sale, the median days on market is 45, and 18.7% of listings have had a price cut. The reported home value year-over-year figure is $0, suggesting no measurable annual price change in this dataset. Population growth data is not available.
Key Trends
One trend is stalled price momentum. The 12-month home value momentum is 0.71%, but the 3-month momentum is -1.03%, meaning prices have edged down recently. The home value year-over-year figure of $0 reinforces a flat annual trend.
Another trend is a buyer-leaning supply environment. With 787 homes for sale and a median 45 days on market, homes are not turning over extremely fast. The 18.7% price-cut share indicates that nearly one in five listings has reduced the asking price, which contributes to the 43/100 PropertyIQ score.
A third trend is relative affordability by purchase price despite weaker local income. The median home value of $463,691 is well below the state average of $764,158, but median household income is also lower at $79,661 compared with $96,334 statewide. The unemployment rate of 6.7% is above the state average of 5.1%, which may limit local purchasing power.
A fourth trend is above-state rent levels. Modesto’s rent index is $2,068, higher than the state average of $1,956. When combined with the lower median home value, this suggests that rental demand and rental income may be relatively stronger than the state benchmark, even as sale prices remain flat.
Who Is This Market For
This market may suit budget-conscious first
AI-generated analysis based on current market data. Last updated September 25, 2026.
Get Modesto, CA market updates
Choose your role for tailored insights.
Modesto, CA market data
Modesto, CA Housing Market Overview
Modesto, CA's median home value is $464K, up 0.7% over the past year. Homes here sell in a median 45 days. Its PropertyIQ Score of 43 sits modestly below the state average of 50.
The Modesto, CA metropolitan area represents a distinct segment of CA's housing landscape. The PropertyIQ Score combines price momentum — how Zillow home values have trended over the past 3 and 12 months — with market-flow signals from Realtor.com that track how fast homes sell and how often sellers cut prices. The result is a single measure of how this market is positioned to outperform or lag its state over the next three years.
Pacific Coast housing markets feature the nation's highest price points alongside strong wage growth from technology, entertainment, and trade sectors. Supply constraints from geographic barriers and regulatory environments create persistent affordability challenges but also strong long-term appreciation potential. Within the Pacific, Modesto, CA's PropertyIQ Score of 43 runs below the Pacific norm.
California's housing market is defined by extreme supply-demand imbalance, with CEQA regulations and geographic constraints limiting new construction. Despite affordability challenges, strong wage growth in tech and entertainment sectors sustains prices.
The PropertyIQ Score for the Modesto, CA market is built from four inputs: Zillow home-value momentum over twelve months, Zillow home-value momentum over three months, the median days listings spend on the market (Realtor.com), and the share of listings with a price cut (Realtor.com). The score runs on a 1 to 99 scale computed across all metro markets nationally and calibrated so 50 equals the state average — a score above 50 means this market is positioned to outperform its state, and a score below 50 means it is set to lag. Momentum here has been positive, with home values up 0.7% over the past year.
View Modesto, CA's complete market profile including historical price trends, score history, and AI-generated analysis. Compare this market against any other US metro to find the best opportunities for your investment strategy.
Counties in the Modesto, CA metro area
ZIP codes in the Modesto, CA metro area
View all 23 →Market data through August 2026. Sourced from Zillow, Realtor.com, Redfin, U.S. Census Bureau, FRED, BLS, and BEA. Per-statistic source and date shown above.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Modesto, CA a good place to buy real estate in 2026?
PropertyIQ doesn't label markets simply good or bad. Instead, the PropertyIQ Score measures a market's demand momentum against its own state, where 50 marks the state average. Modesto, CA currently scores 43, a easing-momentum reading that leaves it positioned to lag its state modestly over the next three years. For buyers, softening demand tends to open up negotiating room as listings sit longer and price cuts become more common. Backing that up, the median home value here is $464K, up 0.7% over the past year. So whether Modesto, CA is right for you comes down to your goals: a rising-momentum market can favor long-term appreciation but offers less room to negotiate, while a cooling one hands buyers more leverage. Treat the score as a timing signal to weigh alongside your budget, holding period, and plans for the property, not a verdict on the market's quality.
What is the PropertyIQ Score for Modesto, CA?
Modesto, CA's PropertyIQ Score is 43, indicating easing momentum on a 1-to-99 scale. The score distills four transparent inputs into a single number: Zillow home-value momentum over the past 12 months, Zillow home-value momentum over the past 3 months, the median days homes spend on the market from Realtor.com, and the share of listings with a price cut, also from Realtor.com. Rising values and faster sales push the score up, while slow sales and frequent price cuts pull it down. The scale is calibrated so 50 equals the state average, meaning a score above 50 predicts the market will outperform its state over the next three years and a score below 50 predicts underperformance. PropertyIQ computes the score across every US market nationally, then recenters it against each state, so 43 places Modesto, CA below its state benchmark.
Are home prices in Modesto, CA rising or falling?
Home prices in Modesto, CA are rising. Over the past year, the median home value increased 0.7%, reaching $464K. Over the latest three months, values slipped 1.0%, a sign near-term demand is softening. PropertyIQ derives these figures from Zillow's home-value index, which tracks the typical value across the market rather than only the homes that happened to sell, giving a steadier read than a raw median sale price. Both the 12-month and 3-month momentum readings feed directly into the PropertyIQ Score, so this price trend is one of the core signals behind Modesto, CA's current score. Keep in mind that appreciation can vary widely by neighborhood and price tier across the metro area, so treat these figures as the market-wide baseline rather than a guarantee for any single property.
How quickly do homes sell in Modesto, CA?
In Modesto, CA, homes sell in a median of 45 days from listing to pending sale, based on Realtor.com market data. Median days on market is one of the clearest real-time reads on local demand: when homes move quickly, buyers are competing and sellers hold the advantage, while lengthening timelines signal cooling interest and more room to negotiate. Alongside sale speed, about 19% of active listings here have taken at least one price cut — a complementary demand gauge, since a rising share of reductions often precedes slower sales and softer prices. Both median days on market and the price-cut share feed directly into the PropertyIQ Score, where faster sales and fewer cuts push the score higher. As a general guide, medians under about 30 days indicate a brisk, competitive market, while medians well beyond 60 days point to buyers regaining leverage. Actual time on market still varies by price band, property type, and season, so treat the median as a market-wide baseline.
How current is this metro area data?
This Modesto, CA market data is refreshed on a monthly cycle, with the latest figures current through August 2026. PropertyIQ ingests fresh data every month from a range of authoritative sources: home values and rents from Zillow, days on market and price-cut activity from Realtor.com, additional housing signals from Redfin, demographic and housing-stock data from the U.S. Census Bureau, mortgage and macroeconomic series from FRED, and employment figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The PropertyIQ Score itself is recomputed every month once the new source data lands, so the score and its four underlying inputs always reflect the most recent complete reporting period rather than a static snapshot. Because official housing data is typically released with a short lag, the current-through date usually trails the present by a few weeks, which is normal across the industry and not a sign the data is out of date.