Modesto, CA Housing Market
AI-powered market intelligence for the Modesto, CA metro area.
PropertyIQ Scores
Modesto, CA Market Analysis
Market Overview
Modesto’s housing market presents a mixed picture, reflected in a PropertyIQ Score of 42 out of 100. That score places the market below the midpoint and points to a cooling or soft environment rather than a high-momentum one. The median home value in Modesto is $467,989, well below the state average of $773,735—roughly $306,000 lower, or about 39 percent under the California benchmark. At the same time, the local rent index is $2,046, slightly above the state average of $1,956, meaning rental costs in Modesto are not discounted to the same degree as home prices.
The top score drivers include 12-month home value momentum of 1.27 percent, 3-month momentum of -0.65 percent, median days on market of 42 days, and a 21.0 percent share of listings with a price cut. The positive 12-month price movement is modest, but the recent 3-month decline and the relatively high share of price cuts suggest that seller leverage is limited. Compared with state benchmarks, the local economy also looks softer: unemployment is 6.7 percent versus 5.2 percent statewide, and median household income is $79,661 versus $96,334 statewide. These comparisons frame Modesto as a relatively affordable but slower-moving market within California.
Key Trends
One clear trend is relative affordability. Modesto’s median home value of $467,989 is significantly below the state average of $773,735, and its median household income of $79,661, while below the state’s $96,334, leaves a lower home-price-to-income ratio than the state overall. Using the provided figures, the median home value is roughly 5.9 times median household income, compared with about 8.0 times statewide. That suggests lower entry costs relative to local incomes than in many California markets.
A second trend is weakening short-term price momentum. The 12-month home value momentum is 1.27 percent, but the 3-month momentum is -0.65 percent, and the reported year-over-year home value change is $-0. This combination indicates that the modest annual gain has eroded in the most recent quarter, with home values flat year over year. Additionally, 21.0 percent of listings have had a price cut, supporting the picture of softening seller conditions.
Third, the rental market shows a pricing premium relative to the state. Modesto’s rent index of $2,046 is $90 above the state average of $1,956. That divergence from home values, which are well below state levels, may influence investor and first-time buyer calculations.
Fourth, market pace and supply are moderate. There are 793 homes for sale, and the median days on market is 42 days. That is not an extremely fast or slow market, but paired with the 21.0 percent price-cut share, it points to a market where buyers have some time and negotiating room.
Who Is This Market For
Given the data, Modesto may suit budget-conscious first-time buyers and entry-level investors more than short-term speculators or move-up buyers seeking rapid appreciation. The median home value of $467,989 is far below the state average, and the local rent index of $2,046 is above the state average, which means renters may face relatively high monthly costs compared with the cost of owning a lower-priced home. That dynamic can motivate first-time buyers who can qualify on a median household income of $79,661. However, the unemployment rate of 6.7 percent and income levels below the state average mean some households may face affordability or job-security constraints.
For investors, the above-state rent index and below-state home values suggest a potentially more favorable rent-to-price profile than the state benchmark, but the 3-month price momentum of -0.65 percent and the 21.0 percent share of listings with price cuts mean short-term price gains are not currently supported by the data. Buy-and-hold investors focused on cash flow may find the rental index more relevant, while flippers may face headwinds. Move-up buyers may be cautious because home value growth is flat year over year and seller competition is visible through price cuts.
Outlook
The near-term outlook is cautious. The data shows a market with modest 12-month price momentum of 1.27 percent but negative 3-month momentum of -0.65 percent and a year-over-year home value change of $-0. With a 21.0 percent share of listings having price cuts and median days on market at 42, the data does not support expectations of rapid home value appreciation in the immediate future. At the same time, the rent index of $2,046 above the state average suggests that rental demand may remain a steadying factor. Economic limits are also relevant: unemployment at 6.7 percent and median household income at $79,661, both below state benchmarks, may constrain purchasing power. Population growth is not available in the provided data, so longer-term demand tied to migration or population change cannot be assessed. Overall, the numbers point to a flat-to-soft price environment unless the recent 3-month momentum turns positive or inventory tightens meaningfully.
AI-generated analysis based on current market data. Last updated August 19, 2026.
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Modesto, CA market data
Modesto, CA Housing Market Overview
Modesto, CA's median home value is $468K, up 1.3% over the past year. Homes here sell in a median 42 days. Its PropertyIQ Score of 42 sits modestly below the state average of 50.
The Modesto, CA metropolitan area represents a distinct segment of CA's housing landscape. The PropertyIQ Score combines price momentum — how Zillow home values have trended over the past 3 and 12 months — with market-flow signals from Realtor.com that track how fast homes sell and how often sellers cut prices. The result is a single measure of how this market is positioned to outperform or lag its state over the next three years.
Pacific Coast housing markets feature the nation's highest price points alongside strong wage growth from technology, entertainment, and trade sectors. Supply constraints from geographic barriers and regulatory environments create persistent affordability challenges but also strong long-term appreciation potential. Within the Pacific, Modesto, CA's PropertyIQ Score of 42 runs below the Pacific norm.
California's housing market is defined by extreme supply-demand imbalance, with CEQA regulations and geographic constraints limiting new construction. Despite affordability challenges, strong wage growth in tech and entertainment sectors sustains prices.
The PropertyIQ Score for the Modesto, CA market is built from four inputs: Zillow home-value momentum over twelve months, Zillow home-value momentum over three months, the median days listings spend on the market (Realtor.com), and the share of listings with a price cut (Realtor.com). The score runs on a 1 to 99 scale computed across all metro markets nationally and calibrated so 50 equals the state average — a score above 50 means this market is positioned to outperform its state, and a score below 50 means it is set to lag. Momentum here has been positive, with home values up 1.3% over the past year.
View Modesto, CA's complete market profile including historical price trends, score history, and AI-generated analysis. Compare this market against any other US metro to find the best opportunities for your investment strategy.
Counties in the Modesto, CA metro area
ZIP codes in the Modesto, CA metro area
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Market data through July 2026. Sourced from Zillow, Realtor.com, Redfin, U.S. Census Bureau, FRED, BLS, and BEA. Per-statistic source and date shown above.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Modesto, CA a good place to buy real estate in 2026?
PropertyIQ doesn't label markets simply good or bad. Instead, the PropertyIQ Score measures a market's demand momentum against its own state, where 50 marks the state average. Modesto, CA currently scores 42, a easing-momentum reading that leaves it positioned to lag its state modestly over the next three years. For buyers, softening demand tends to open up negotiating room as listings sit longer and price cuts become more common. Backing that up, the median home value here is $468K, up 1.3% over the past year. So whether Modesto, CA is right for you comes down to your goals: a rising-momentum market can favor long-term appreciation but offers less room to negotiate, while a cooling one hands buyers more leverage. Treat the score as a timing signal to weigh alongside your budget, holding period, and plans for the property, not a verdict on the market's quality.
What is the PropertyIQ Score for Modesto, CA?
Modesto, CA's PropertyIQ Score is 42, indicating easing momentum on a 1-to-99 scale. The score distills four transparent inputs into a single number: Zillow home-value momentum over the past 12 months, Zillow home-value momentum over the past 3 months, the median days homes spend on the market from Realtor.com, and the share of listings with a price cut, also from Realtor.com. Rising values and faster sales push the score up, while slow sales and frequent price cuts pull it down. The scale is calibrated so 50 equals the state average, meaning a score above 50 predicts the market will outperform its state over the next three years and a score below 50 predicts underperformance. PropertyIQ computes the score across every US market nationally, then recenters it against each state, so 42 places Modesto, CA below its state benchmark.
Are home prices in Modesto, CA rising or falling?
Home prices in Modesto, CA are rising. Over the past year, the median home value increased 1.3%, reaching $468K. Over the latest three months, values slipped 0.6%, a sign near-term demand is softening. PropertyIQ derives these figures from Zillow's home-value index, which tracks the typical value across the market rather than only the homes that happened to sell, giving a steadier read than a raw median sale price. Both the 12-month and 3-month momentum readings feed directly into the PropertyIQ Score, so this price trend is one of the core signals behind Modesto, CA's current score. Keep in mind that appreciation can vary widely by neighborhood and price tier across the metro area, so treat these figures as the market-wide baseline rather than a guarantee for any single property.
How quickly do homes sell in Modesto, CA?
In Modesto, CA, homes sell in a median of 42 days from listing to pending sale, based on Realtor.com market data. Median days on market is one of the clearest real-time reads on local demand: when homes move quickly, buyers are competing and sellers hold the advantage, while lengthening timelines signal cooling interest and more room to negotiate. Alongside sale speed, about 21% of active listings here have taken at least one price cut — a complementary demand gauge, since a rising share of reductions often precedes slower sales and softer prices. Both median days on market and the price-cut share feed directly into the PropertyIQ Score, where faster sales and fewer cuts push the score higher. As a general guide, medians under about 30 days indicate a brisk, competitive market, while medians well beyond 60 days point to buyers regaining leverage. Actual time on market still varies by price band, property type, and season, so treat the median as a market-wide baseline.
How current is this metro area data?
This Modesto, CA market data is refreshed on a monthly cycle, with the latest figures current through July 2026. PropertyIQ ingests fresh data every month from a range of authoritative sources: home values and rents from Zillow, days on market and price-cut activity from Realtor.com, additional housing signals from Redfin, demographic and housing-stock data from the U.S. Census Bureau, mortgage and macroeconomic series from FRED, and employment figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The PropertyIQ Score itself is recomputed every month once the new source data lands, so the score and its four underlying inputs always reflect the most recent complete reporting period rather than a static snapshot. Because official housing data is typically released with a short lag, the current-through date usually trails the present by a few weeks, which is normal across the industry and not a sign the data is out of date.