Is It a Good Time to Buy a House? What the Data Actually Says in 2026

"Is it a good time to buy a house?" It is the most-searched real estate question on the internet. The honest answer: yes, but only in the right markets. The gap between the best and worst metros for buyers in 2026 is enormous, and the cities you keep hearing about on social media are often the worst places to buy right now.

We scored every major U.S. metro with the PropertyIQ Score, a 0-100 signal that predicts how a market is likely to perform over the next few years relative to its state, where 50 is the state average. Then we layered in affordability and price-to-income, because the score tells you the trajectory and affordability tells you whether the entry price actually works. The results tell a very different story than the conventional wisdom. The Great Lakes and Rust Belt metros that nobody talks about post some of the highest PropertyIQ Scores in the country, while several Sun Belt darlings now sit below their state averages.

Here is what the data actually says.

The Short Answer: It Depends Entirely on Where

The national housing market does not exist in any meaningful sense for buyers. What exists are hundreds of local markets, each with their own supply dynamics, affordability profiles, and risk levels. In February 2026, conditions range from exceptional to terrible depending on where you look.

The broad strokes nationally:

• Mortgage rates have stabilized. The 30-year fixed is hovering around 6.1%, down from the 7.8% peak in late 2023. Not cheap, but predictable. Stability lets buyers budget with confidence.
• Inventory is rising, unevenly. Active listings are up 12-15% year-over-year nationally, but that growth is concentrated in the Sun Belt. The Northeast and Midwest remain supply-constrained.
• Bidding wars have receded in most markets. Days on market nationally sit around 42, up from 25 at the 2022 trough. Buyers have more time and more leverage than at any point since 2019.
• Affordability remains historically stretched. Monthly payments are still well above pre-pandemic levels. The national price-to-income ratio sits at approximately 4.8x, down from 5.2x at peak but still elevated above the 3.5x long-run average.

None of those national numbers tell you whether your market is a good place to buy. The PropertyIQ Score, read alongside local affordability, does.

What the Data Says: National Metrics That Matter

Before diving into specific markets, here are the indicators we weight most heavily.

Mortgage Rates and Monthly Payments

At 6.1%, a $400,000 home with 20% down costs roughly $1,940 per month in principal and interest, compared to $1,330 at the 3% rates of 2021. That $610 monthly gap is the single biggest affordability headwind. But rates have been stable for months, and if they decline further, refinancing is always available. You marry the house; you date the rate.

Price-to-Income Ratio

This is the metric that separates affordable markets from traps. Markets below 3.5x are generally affordable. Markets above 5x face structural demand constraints. The most affordable metros below all have price-to-income ratios under 4x.

Months of Supply

Below 3 months favors sellers. Above 4 months gives buyers negotiating power. Above 6 months and you can ask for meaningful concessions. Several Sun Belt markets now have 5-7 months of supply, and prices are still falling.

PropertyIQ Score

PropertyIQ's 0-100 score is forward-looking and state-relative: it predicts how a market is likely to perform over the next few years versus its state, where 50 is the state average. It is built from a market's demand signal: home-value momentum, days on market, and the share of listings cutting price. Crucially, it does not measure affordability. A score above 70 signals a market the model expects to outperform its state; below 40 signals expected underperformance. Read it next to the price-to-income ratio, and you have both halves of the buying decision.

Markets Where It Is a Great Time to Buy

These metros post high PropertyIQ Scores, meaning the model expects them to outperform their state over the next few years, and they happen to be affordable too. That combination, expected strength plus a workable entry price, is what makes them stand out for buyers. The pattern is clear: the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest are where the opportunity is.

The Top Tier: PropertyIQ Scores Above 90

Rochester, NY | PropertyIQ Score: 99/100 | Median Price: $250,000

Rochester posts the highest PropertyIQ Score of any major metro in the country. The model expects it to strongly outperform New York State over the next few years, on the strength of tight supply and steady demand. Separately, a median price of $250,000 translates to a price-to-income ratio well under 3.5x. The metro benefits from a diversified employer base anchored by the University of Rochester, Rochester Regional Health, and a growing optics and photonics sector. Expected outperformance and genuine affordability rarely line up this cleanly.

Buffalo, NY | PropertyIQ Score: 98/100 | Median Price: $249,950

Buffalo's resurgence is no longer a speculative thesis; it is showing up in the score. A PropertyIQ Score of 98 means the model expects Buffalo to strongly outperform New York State, and a median price under $250,000 keeps it genuinely affordable. The combination of affordable housing stock, waterfront redevelopment, and proximity to the Canadian border (with associated trade-economy jobs) gives this metro real long-term demand drivers at a fraction of coastal prices.

Grand Rapids, MI | PropertyIQ Score: 93/100 | Median Price: $397,000

A PropertyIQ Score of 93 places Grand Rapids among the markets the model expects to clearly outperform Michigan. It carries a higher price tag than other Midwest picks, but at $397,000 prices remain within reach for households earning the local median income, supported by a booming healthcare and manufacturing economy and steady population growth.

St. Louis, MO | PropertyIQ Score: 91/100 | Median Price: $284,950

St. Louis pairs a PropertyIQ Score of 91, expected outperformance of Missouri, with an underappreciated affordability story. Healthcare, higher education (Washington University, SLU), and defense-related employment provide stability, and a median price under $285,000 keeps monthly payments manageable.

Detroit, MI | PropertyIQ Score: 90/100 | Median Price: $246,400

Detroit's PropertyIQ Score of 90 signals a market the model expects to outperform Michigan. The automotive industry's investment in EV manufacturing is creating high-wage jobs, and the metro's suburban communities offer solid housing stock under $250,000. Affordability plus an expected-outperformance score is a strong combination for patient buyers.

Strong Markets: PropertyIQ Scores 70-90

Akron, OH | PropertyIQ Score: 88/100 | Median Price: $217,225

Akron is one of the most affordable major metros in the country, with a median price barely above $217,000. A 20% down payment is under $44,000, and monthly payments at current rates are roughly $1,050. Its PropertyIQ Score of 88 says the model also expects it to outperform Ohio, so that affordability does not come at the cost of a weak trajectory.

Chicago, IL | PropertyIQ Score: 83/100 | Median Price: $348,900

The nation's third-largest metro carrying a PropertyIQ Score of 83 is significant: the model expects Chicago to outperform Illinois, and the market avoided the speculative overbuilding that has dragged other large metros down. Separately, Chicago offers something almost no other major city can match: genuine urban living with a price-to-income ratio under 4x. The suburbs in particular offer strong value for first-time buyers.

Cincinnati, OH | PropertyIQ Score: 73/100 | Median Price: $329,950

Cincinnati quietly delivers one of the best setups among mid-sized metros: a PropertyIQ Score of 73 (expected to outperform Ohio) alongside a median price under $330,000. Strong employment anchors in healthcare (Cincinnati Children's, TriHealth), consumer goods (P&G, Kroger), and a growing tech scene support demand.

A note on Pittsburgh, PA (median around $240,000): it is one of the Northeast's best affordability stories, but its PropertyIQ Score of 46 sits just below the Pennsylvania average. The model reads its trajectory as roughly middling rather than a standout. Affordable and stable, but not an expected outperformer, so weigh it as a value play rather than a momentum one.

Strong Score, Steep Price

A high PropertyIQ Score tells you a market is expected to outperform its state, but it says nothing about whether you can afford the entry price. Three markets show exactly where those two questions diverge.

San Francisco, CA | PropertyIQ Score: 99/100 | Median Price: $872,000

San Francisco is the clearest example. After years of correction, prices have stabilized and inventory has improved, and a PropertyIQ Score of 99 means the model expects it to strongly outperform California. But a median of $872,000 puts it out of reach for most households. The score tells you the trajectory is favorable; the price tells you the level is still extreme. If you have the income to support the payment, the data is on your side. For everyone else, the math does not work.

Portland, OR | PropertyIQ Score: 81/100 | Median Price: $584,950

Portland scores 81, so the model expects it to outperform Oregon, but a median near $585,000 keeps it a stretch for local incomes. A favorable trajectory at a price that demands a strong balance sheet.

Denver, CO | PropertyIQ Score: 76/100 | Median Price: $557,500

Denver has shifted toward a buyer's market on inventory, and its PropertyIQ Score of 76 points to expected outperformance of Colorado. The constraint is the same as the others here: at $557,500, affordability, not the score, is the reason to hesitate.

Markets to Approach with Caution

These are the markets where the PropertyIQ Score itself flashes a warning: the model expects them to underperform their state, and in the worst cases the price is stretched on top of it.

Austin, TX | PropertyIQ Score: 18/100 | Median Price: $462,000

Austin's PropertyIQ Score of 18 should give every prospective buyer pause: the model expects it to significantly underperform Texas over the coming years. Prices have already corrected 12-18% from the 2022 peak, but a median of $462,000 with supply still flooding in from pandemic-era overbuilding suggests the correction may not be over. Buying here now means betting against the data.

Miami, FL | PropertyIQ Score: 13/100 | Median Price: $500,000

Miami's PropertyIQ Score of 13 is among the lowest of any major metro we track; the model expects clear underperformance of Florida. Insurance costs, property taxes, HOA fees, and a median price of $500,000 create an affordability squeeze that the headline price alone does not capture. Total monthly housing costs in South Florida often run 30-40% above the mortgage payment alone.

Below Their State Average: The Softening Sun Belt

Three more pandemic-boom metros now sit just below their state averages. Not in free-fall, but with the model expecting modest underperformance as supply works through the system.

Phoenix, AZ | PropertyIQ Score: 45/100 | Median Price: $482,500

Despite the TSMC semiconductor buildout, Phoenix's score of 45 sits below the Arizona average, reflecting persistent oversupply and softening demand at a median price of $482,500 that remains a stretch for local incomes.

Tampa, FL | PropertyIQ Score: 47/100 | Median Price: $399,900

Tampa rode the same migration wave as Miami and faces the same headwinds, rising insurance costs and oversupply, leaving its score just below the Florida average at 47.

Las Vegas, NV | PropertyIQ Score: 44/100 | Median Price: $465,500

Las Vegas has long been one of the most volatile housing markets in America, and a score of 44 reflects elevated prices against demand fundamentals that sit just under the Nevada average.

How to Use Data to Decide

Asking "is it a good time to buy a house" in the abstract is like asking "is it a good time to invest" without specifying what you are investing in. Here is how to make the question actionable.

Step 1: Check Your Market's PropertyIQ Score

Visit PropertyIQ's interactive map and look up the metro, county, or ZIP code where you are considering buying. A PropertyIQ Score above 70 means the model expects the market to outperform its state; below 40 is a caution flag. Remember that 50 is the state average, not the national one.

Step 2: Compare Price to Local Income

A market's median price means nothing without context. Check the price-to-income ratio on the market detail page. Below 3.5x is affordable. Between 3.5x and 5x is manageable with solid income. Above 5x means you will likely be stretching.

Step 3: Read the Score and the Price Together

The PropertyIQ Score and affordability answer two different questions. The score tells you whether a market is expected to outperform or underperform its state; the price-to-income ratio tells you whether you can comfortably afford the entry. The ideal buy scores well and is affordable (the Great Lakes metros above). A high score at a steep price (San Francisco, Denver, Portland) is fine for buyers with the income to absorb it. A low score at a stretched price (Austin, Miami) is the combination to avoid.

Step 4: Consider the Trend

Is the PropertyIQ Score rising or falling? A market scoring 60 and improving may be a better entry point than one scoring 75 and sliding. Check the historical trend on the market detail page.

Step 5: Assess Your Own Readiness

No score can override personal financial reality. Do you have stable income? An emergency fund beyond your down payment? Are you planning to stay at least five years? If yes, a strong PropertyIQ Score and a workable price are your green light. If those answers are uncertain, even the best market conditions will not protect you from buying before you are ready.

The Bottom Line

Is it a good time to buy a house in 2026? In Rochester, Buffalo, Grand Rapids, St. Louis, Detroit, Akron, Chicago, and Cincinnati: yes, about as unambiguously as the data gets. These Great Lakes and Midwest metros pair high PropertyIQ Scores, markets expected to outperform their states, with median prices under $400,000.

In Austin and Miami, the data says wait. Both carry PropertyIQ Scores in the teens, the model expects them to underperform their states, and prices remain stretched. Phoenix, Tampa, and Las Vegas sit just below their state averages, softer if not as severe. And in high-scoring but expensive markets like San Francisco, Denver, and Portland, the trajectory is favorable but the entry price is the obstacle.

The difference between a PropertyIQ Score of 99 and one of 13 is not a rounding error. It is the difference between a market expected to outperform its state and one expected to fall behind it. Read it alongside the price, and you will know which side of that line your market falls on. Use it.

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Ready to check your market? Explore PropertyIQ's interactive map to see the PropertyIQ Score, affordability metrics, and trend data for any metro, county, or ZIP code in the country. Stop guessing. Start with the data.