Is It a Good Time to Buy a House? What the Data Actually Says in 2026

"Is it a good time to buy a house?" It is the most-searched real estate question on the internet. The honest answer: yes, but only in the right markets. The gap between the best and worst metros for buyers in 2026 is enormous, and the cities you keep hearing about on social media are often the worst places to buy right now.

We ran every major U.S. metro through PropertyIQ's HomeReady scoring model, which weighs affordability, market balance, price momentum, and risk factors on a 0-100 scale. The results tell a very different story than the conventional wisdom. The Sun Belt darlings that dominated headlines for the past five years are scoring in the 20s. The Rust Belt and Great Lakes metros that nobody talks about are scoring in the 80s and 90s.

Here is what the data actually says.

The Short Answer: It Depends Entirely on Where

The national housing market does not exist in any meaningful sense for buyers. What exists are hundreds of local markets, each with their own supply dynamics, affordability profiles, and risk levels. In February 2026, conditions range from exceptional to terrible depending on where you look.

The broad strokes nationally:

• Mortgage rates have stabilized. The 30-year fixed is hovering around 6.1%, down from the 7.8% peak in late 2023. Not cheap, but predictable. Stability lets buyers budget with confidence.
• Inventory is rising, unevenly. Active listings are up 12-15% year-over-year nationally, but that growth is concentrated in the Sun Belt. The Northeast and Midwest remain supply-constrained.
• Bidding wars have receded in most markets. Days on market nationally sit around 42, up from 25 at the 2022 trough. Buyers have more time and more leverage than at any point since 2019.
• Affordability remains historically stretched. Monthly payments are still well above pre-pandemic levels. The national price-to-income ratio sits at approximately 4.8x, down from 5.2x at peak but still elevated above the 3.5x long-run average.

None of those national numbers tell you whether your market is a good place to buy. The HomeReady score does.

What the Data Says: National Metrics That Matter

Before diving into specific markets, here are the indicators we weight most heavily.

Mortgage Rates and Monthly Payments

At 6.1%, a $400,000 home with 20% down costs roughly $1,940 per month in principal and interest, compared to $1,330 at the 3% rates of 2021. That $610 monthly gap is the single biggest affordability headwind. But rates have been stable for months, and if they decline further, refinancing is always available. You marry the house; you date the rate.

Price-to-Income Ratio

This is the metric that separates buyer-friendly markets from traps. Markets below 3.5x are generally affordable. Markets above 5x face structural demand constraints. The best-scoring metros in our model all have price-to-income ratios under 4x.

Months of Supply

Below 3 months favors sellers. Above 4 months gives buyers negotiating power. Above 6 months and you can ask for meaningful concessions. Several Sun Belt markets now have 5-7 months of supply, and prices are still falling.

HomeReady Score

PropertyIQ's composite score (0-100) synthesizes affordability, inventory, price trends, and risk into a single number. A score above 65 indicates buyer-friendly conditions. Above 80 is strong. Above 90 is exceptional. Below 30 is a warning sign.

Markets Where It Is a Great Time to Buy

These metros score highest on our HomeReady model, meaning the combination of affordability, market balance, and value proposition is genuinely strong for buyers right now. The pattern is clear: the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest are where the opportunity is.

The Top Tier: HomeReady Scores Above 90

Rochester, NY | HomeReady Score: 98.9 | Median Price: $250,000

Rochester posts the highest HomeReady score of any major metro in the country. A median price of $250,000 translates to a price-to-income ratio well under 3.5x. The metro benefits from a diversified employer base anchored by the University of Rochester, Rochester Regional Health, and a growing optics and photonics sector. For buyers who want stability and genuine affordability, it does not get much better than this.

Buffalo, NY | HomeReady Score: 93.4 | Median Price: $249,950

Buffalo's resurgence is no longer a speculative thesis; it is showing up in the data. A median price under $250,000 with a HomeReady score above 93 makes it one of the strongest buyer markets in America. The combination of affordable housing stock, waterfront redevelopment, and proximity to the Canadian border (with associated trade-economy jobs) gives this metro genuine long-term demand drivers at a fraction of coastal prices.

Strong Markets: HomeReady Scores 70-90

Grand Rapids, MI | HomeReady Score: 81.9 | Median Price: $397,000

Grand Rapids carries a higher price tag than other Midwest picks, but the HomeReady score reflects strong fundamentals: a booming healthcare and manufacturing economy, population growth, and a balanced market. At $397,000, prices are elevated for the region but still well within reach for households earning the local median income.

Chicago, IL | HomeReady Score: 78.4 | Median Price: $348,900

The nation's third-largest metro scoring nearly 80 on HomeReady is significant. Chicago offers something almost no other major city can match: genuine urban living with a price-to-income ratio under 4x. The suburbs, in particular, offer strong value. This is a market where first-time buyers can still afford a three-bedroom house without needing two six-figure incomes.

Cincinnati, OH | HomeReady Score: 75.6 | Median Price: $329,950

Cincinnati quietly delivers one of the best value propositions among mid-sized metros. Strong employment anchors in healthcare (Cincinnati Children's, TriHealth), consumer goods (P&G, Kroger), and a growing tech scene support demand. A median price under $330,000 keeps monthly payments manageable, and the HomeReady score reflects balanced supply-demand dynamics.

Akron, OH | HomeReady Score: 74.1 | Median Price: $217,225

Akron is one of the most affordable major metros in the country, with a median price barely above $217,000. For buyers priced out of larger cities, the math here is compelling: a 20% down payment is under $44,000, and monthly payments at current rates are roughly $1,050. The HomeReady score of 74 confirms that market conditions favor buyers.

St. Louis, MO | HomeReady Score: 73.9 | Median Price: $284,950

St. Louis continues to offer an underappreciated combination of affordability and economic diversity. Healthcare, higher education (Washington University, SLU), and defense-related employment provide stability. A median price under $285,000 with a HomeReady score near 74 places it squarely in buyer-friendly territory.

Pittsburgh, PA | HomeReady Score: 72.2 | Median Price: $240,000

Pittsburgh's combination of major university systems (Carnegie Mellon, Pitt), a growing tech and robotics sector, and median prices around $240,000 makes it one of the best value propositions in the Northeast. The market has been remarkably stable, with less speculative upside than Sun Belt metros, but also far less risk of buying at an inflated peak.

Detroit, MI | HomeReady Score: 65.3 | Median Price: $246,400

Detroit scores above the buyer-friendly threshold at 65.3. The automotive industry's investment in EV manufacturing is creating high-wage jobs, and the metro area's suburban communities offer solid housing stock under $250,000. It is not the highest-scoring market on this list, but it clears the bar for favorable buying conditions.

Markets to Approach with Caution

Now for the uncomfortable part. Several of the most-discussed housing markets in America are scoring poorly (in some cases, terribly) on our HomeReady model. These are not markets where the data supports buying right now unless you have very specific, long-term reasons and the financial cushion to absorb risk.

The Sun Belt Warning Signs

Austin, TX | HomeReady Score: 21.2 | Market Health: 4.4 | Median Price: $462,000

Austin's HomeReady score of 21 should give every prospective buyer pause. Yes, prices have corrected 12-18% from the 2022 peak. But a median of $462,000 in a market where the price-to-income ratio remains stretched, combined with a Market Health score of 4.4 (out of 100), signals that the correction may not be over. Supply continues to flood the market from pandemic-era overbuilding. Buying here now means betting against the data.

Phoenix, AZ | HomeReady Score: 22.2 | Market Health: 8.2 | Median Price: $482,500

Phoenix tells a similar story. Despite the TSMC semiconductor buildout generating headlines, the housing market is deeply out of balance. A Market Health score of 8.2, barely above zero, reflects persistent oversupply and weakening demand at current price levels. The median price of $482,500 remains a stretch for local incomes.

Miami, FL | HomeReady Score: 26.6 | Market Health: 2.2 | Median Price: $500,000

Miami's Market Health score of 2.2 is the lowest of any major metro we track. Insurance costs, property taxes, HOA fees, and a median price of $500,000 create an affordability squeeze that the headline price alone does not capture. Total monthly housing costs in South Florida are often 30-40% higher than the mortgage payment alone suggests.

Tampa, FL | HomeReady Score: 26.0 | Median Price: $399,900

Tampa rode the same pandemic migration wave as Miami and is now facing the same headwinds: rising insurance costs, oversupply from new construction, and prices that overshot local incomes. A HomeReady score of 26 puts it firmly in cautionary territory.

Las Vegas, NV | HomeReady Score: 25.0 | Median Price: $465,500

Las Vegas has historically been one of the most volatile housing markets in America, and the current data does not inspire confidence. A score of 25 reflects an unfavorable combination of elevated prices and weak market fundamentals.

Denver, CO | HomeReady Score: 27.6 | Median Price: $557,500

Denver has transitioned from a seller's market to a buyer's market in terms of inventory, but prices have not adjusted enough to match. A median of $557,500 with a HomeReady score of 27.6 means the market is still working through its pandemic-era excess.

Portland, OR | HomeReady Score: 17.0 | Market Health: 6.1 | Median Price: $584,950

Portland posts the lowest HomeReady score among the metros we analyzed for this article. A median price approaching $585,000 combined with a Market Health score of 6.1 makes this one of the most challenging buyer environments in the country.

A Special Case: San Francisco

San Francisco, CA | HomeReady Score: 74.7 | Median Price: $872,000

San Francisco is an outlier. Its HomeReady score of nearly 75 is technically buyer-friendly, reflecting stabilized prices and improved inventory after years of correction. But a median of $872,000 means affordability is still out of reach for most households. The score tells you the direction is right; the price tag tells you the level is still extreme. If you have the income to support the payment, the data says conditions are favorable. For everyone else, the math still does not work.

How to Use Data to Decide

Asking "is it a good time to buy a house" in the abstract is like asking "is it a good time to invest" without specifying what you are investing in. Here is how to make the question actionable.

Step 1: Check Your Market's HomeReady Score

Visit PropertyIQ's interactive map and look up the metro, county, or ZIP code where you are considering buying. A HomeReady score above 65 indicates favorable conditions. Above 80 is strong. Below 30 is a warning to wait or look elsewhere.

Step 2: Compare Price to Local Income

A market's median price means nothing without context. Check the price-to-income ratio on the market detail page. Below 3.5x is affordable. Between 3.5x and 5x is manageable with solid income. Above 5x means you will likely be stretching.

Step 3: Look at Market Health

The Market Health score tells you whether conditions are improving or deteriorating. A low Market Health score (under 20) combined with a low HomeReady score means the market is actively unfavorable. A low Market Health score with a high HomeReady score means the market is affordable but choppy: fine for long-term holders, riskier for short timelines.

Step 4: Consider the Trend

Is the HomeReady score rising or falling? A market scoring 60 and improving rapidly may be a better entry point than a market scoring 75 and declining. Check the historical trend on the market detail page.

Step 5: Assess Your Own Readiness

No score can override personal financial reality. Do you have stable income? An emergency fund beyond your down payment? Are you planning to stay at least five years? If yes, a high HomeReady score is your green light. If those answers are uncertain, even the best market conditions will not protect you from the risk of buying before you are ready.

The Bottom Line

Is it a good time to buy a house in 2026? In Rochester, Buffalo, Chicago, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, and a dozen other Great Lakes and Midwest metros: yes, unambiguously. These markets offer HomeReady scores above 65, median prices under $400,000, and fundamentals that support long-term value.

In Austin, Phoenix, Miami, Tampa, Las Vegas, Portland, and Denver, the data says no. These markets are scoring in the 20s on HomeReady, with Market Health scores near zero in several cases. The corrections that began in 2023 may not be finished, and buying now means accepting meaningful downside risk.

The difference between a 98.9 HomeReady score and a 17.0 HomeReady score is not a rounding error. It is the difference between buying into strength and buying into weakness. The data exists to tell you which side of that line your market falls on. Use it.

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Ready to check your market? Explore PropertyIQ's interactive map to see HomeReady scores, Market Health ratings, affordability metrics, and trend data for any metro, county, or ZIP code in the country. Stop guessing. Start with the data.