Waco, TX Housing Market Forecast 2026
A momentum-based outlook built from real market data: the PropertyIQ demand score, days on market, and price-cut trends — refreshed monthly, with a confidence grade. No speculation, no price targets.
PropertyIQ Score
Will Waco, TX Home Prices Crash in 2026?
Based only on the momentum data provided, the current signals do not show a home price crash in Waco for 2026. The 12-month home value momentum is positive at 2.50 percent, while the 3-month momentum is negative at -1.53 percent and the year-over-year home value change is -$3, essentially flat. That pattern describes a market that has cooled recently, not one that is in a sharp downward spiral. Median days on market of 70 days and a price cut share of 21.6 percent show slower selling conditions and seller adjustments, but they do not show the kind of broad, rapid decline associated with a crash. The PropertyIQ Score of 13 out of 100 is well below the state average of 50, indicating weak demand momentum. However, that score is a momentum signal, not a crash forecast. The available data shows cooling, not collapse.
Momentum Signals
The top score drivers point to easing demand. The 12-month home value momentum of 2.50 percent is positive but modest, showing that home values were still higher over the past year. The 3-month home value momentum of -1.53 percent is a cooling signal for the near term. Together, they suggest that the market has lost recent upward push and has begun to ease. Median days on market of 70 days indicates a slower sales pace. Buyers are taking more time, which reduces the urgency that can support rising prices. The share of listings with a price cut at 21.6 percent means roughly one in five listings has had a price reduction. That points to sellers adjusting to softer buyer demand, and it gives buyers more room to negotiate. None of these signals alone is extreme, but together they form a consistent cooling picture. The PropertyIQ Score of 13 out of 100, with an A confidence grade, summarizes that below-average demand momentum. The A grade means the signal is reliable, but it still measures momentum, not future price levels.
How Waco, TX Compares
Waco shows a mixed comparison against the state averages provided. The median home value in Waco is $255,418, below the state average of $301,806. The rent index is $1,438, above the state average of $1,339. The unemployment rate is 4.1 percent, below the state average of 4.4 percent. Median household income is $63,880, below the state average of $76,292. National benchmarks were not provided, so the comparison cannot be extended to national conditions. The PropertyIQ Score directly compares momentum: Waco's 13 out of 100 is far below the state average of 50. That means demand momentum in Waco is weaker than the state average. The data also reports 1,608 homes for sale, but no state or national comparison is available for that level or for days on market. Lower home values paired with lower household income means the market's price-to-income relationship cannot be judged as stronger or weaker from the provided data alone. The below-average unemployment rate and above-average rent index may offer some stability, but the missing population growth data limits the comparison.
The Bottom Line for 2026
The momentum outlook for Waco in 2026 is one of continued cooling and below-average demand momentum, with an A confidence grade on the PropertyIQ Score of 13 out of 100. The recent 3-month home value decline, the 70-day median days on market, and the 21.6 percent price cut share all reinforce a market that is easing. The 12-month home value momentum of 2.50 percent and the essentially flat year-over-year home value change of -$3 indicate that the market is not collapsing. The unemployment rate below the state average and the rent index above the state average could provide some underlying support, while lower household income and unavailable population growth data leave the demand picture incomplete. Based strictly on the momentum data provided, the most grounded summary is that Waco is cooling, not crashing.
What Drives the Waco, TX Outlook
Frequently Asked Questions
Will Waco, TX home prices crash in 2026?
Momentum data does not predict prices, but it shows direction. Waco, TX has a PropertyIQ Score of 13 (confidence grade F), indicating very weak demand momentum. A score of 50 equals the market's state average. PropertyIQ does not publish price-crash predictions; it tracks the demand signals that historically move first: price momentum, days on market, and the share of listings with price cuts.
What is the Waco, TX PropertyIQ Score?
Waco, TX currently scores 13 out of 99 (confidence grade F). The PropertyIQ Score measures demand momentum from four inputs: 12-month price momentum, 3-month price momentum, median days on market, and price-reduced share. It is calibrated so 50 equals the state average, and it is refreshed monthly.
How fast are homes selling in Waco, TX?
The median listing in Waco, TX currently spends 70 days on the market. Days on market is one of the four inputs to the PropertyIQ Score: shorter times signal firming demand, longer times signal easing demand.
Are Waco, TX home prices rising or falling right now?
Over the last year, Waco, TX home values rose 2.5%. That is measured history, not a forecast; the PropertyIQ Score combines it with days-on-market and price-cut data to read where demand is heading.
How current is this Waco, TX forecast data?
This forecast is refreshed on a monthly cycle, with the latest figures current through July 2026. PropertyIQ recomputes the PropertyIQ Score every month using fresh price momentum data from Zillow and fresh days-on-market and price-cut data from Realtor.com, so the score always reflects the most recently completed reporting period rather than a static snapshot.